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Royal Ascot Trends and Free Tips: Sat 24th June 23

Wednesday, June 21, 2023

Into DAY FIVE at  ROYAL ASCOT we've SEVEN more mouth-watering races to look forward to that include theWokingham Stakes and Hardwicke Stakes, but all eyes will be on some of the best sprinters in the world as they line-up for the Group One Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at 3.40.

Like all big race days here at SUREWIN we've got it all covered with key trends and stats, plus our free tips (to be added once final runners are out) - use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

Enjoy!

2023 Royal Ascot Horse Racing Trends: Saturday 24th June

2.30 - Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 7f ITV

Chesham Stakes Recent Winners

2022 – Holloway Boy (40/1)
2021 – Point Lonsdale (10/11 fav)
2020 – Battleground (11/4 fav)
2019 – Pinatubo (3/1)
2018 – Arthur Kitt (13/2)
2017 – September (11/8 fav)
2016 – Churchill (8/11 fav)
2015 – Suits You (14/1)
2014 – Richard Pankhurst (10/1)
2013 – Berkshire (16/1)
2012 – Tha’ir (9/2)
2011 – Maybe (5/2 fav)
2010 – Zaidan (7/1)
2009 – Big Audio (22/1)
2008 – Free Agent (7/2 jfav)
2007 – Maze (11/2)
2006 – Champlain (7/2)
2005 – Championship Point (4/1)
2004 – Whazzat (7/1)
2003 – Pearl Of Love (11/10 fav)

Chesham Stakes Key Trends

19/20 – Had no more than 2 previous career runs
17/20 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
16/20 – Ran over 6f last time out (10 won)
16/20 – Had just 1 previous career run
16/20 – Were foaled in March or earlier
14/20 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/20 – Won their previous race
7/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/20 – Irish trained-winners (Aidan O’Brien, 4 of the last 7 winners)
2/20 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/20 – Trained by Richard Hannon
Ryan Moore has ridden the winners in 2011, 2016, 2017, 2020 & 2021
15 of the last 17 winners came between stalls 1-8
7 of the last 17 winners came from stalls 1 (3) or 7 (4)
13 of the last 17 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
Trainer Paul Cole has won the race 4 times before

3.05 - Jersey Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 7f ITV

Recent Jersey Stakes Winners

2022 – Noble Truth (4/1 fav)
2021 – Creative Force (5/1 jfav)
2020 – Molatham (11/2)
2019 – Space Traveller (25/1)
2018 – Expert Eye (8/1)
2017 – Le Brivido (2/1 fav)
2016 – Ribchester (7/1)
2015 – Dutch Connection (14/1)
2014 – Mustajeeb (9/2 jfav)
2013 – Gale Force Ten (9/2 fav)
2012 – Ishvana (20/1)
2011 – Strong Suit (11/1)
2010 – Rainfall (8/1)
2009 – Ouqba (12/1)
2008 – Aqlaam (13/2)
2007 – Tariq (15/2)
2006 – Jeremy (9/2)
2005 – Proclamation (7/1)
2004 – Kheleyf (6/1)
2003 – Membership (20/1)
2002 -  Just James (20/1)

Jersey Stakes Trends

19/21 – Had at least 1 run already that season
17/21 – Had 4 or more career runs
13/21 – Had won over 7f before
13/21 – Had won a Listed or better class race before
11/21 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/21 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
9/21 – Had run at Ascot before
8/21 – Horses from stall 8 placed
8/21 – Unplaced favourites
7/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/21 – Won their previous race
5/21 – Winning favourites
2/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3 wins in total)
2/21 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (5 wins in total)
The Irish have won 3 of the last 11 runnings
The horse from stall 11 has finished 2nd in 5 of the last 15 runnings

3.40 - Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 6f ITV

Diamond Jubilee Stakes Recent Winners

2022 – Naval Crown (33/1)
2021 – Dream Of Dreams (3/1 fav)
2020 – Hello Youmzain (4/1)
2019 – Blue Point (6/4 fav)
2018 – Merchant Navy (4/1)
2017 – The Tin Man (9/2)
2016 – Twilight Son (7/2)
2015 – Undrafted (14/1)
2014 – Slade Power (7/2 fav)
2013 – Lethal Force (11/1)
2012 – Black Caviar (1/6 fav)
2011 – Society Rock (25/1)
2010 – Starspanglebanner (13/2 jfav)
2009 – Art Connoisseur (20/1)
2008 – Kingsgate Native (33/1)
2007 – Soldier’s Tale (9/1)
2006 – Les Arcs (33/1)
2005 – Cape Of Good Hope (8/1)
2004 - Fayr Jag (12/1)
2003 – Choisir (13/2)

Diamond Jubilee Stakes Key Trends

18/20 – Previous distance (6f) winners
17/20 – Previous Group Race winners
16/20 – Aged 5 or younger
15/20 – Had run at Ascot before
14/20 – Failed to win their last race
13/20 – Won by a UK-based yard
9/20 – Returned a double-figure price
9/20 – Unplaced favourites
6/20 – Ran in the King’s Stand Stakes earlier at the meeting
5/20 – Winning favourite (joint)
2/20 – Trained by James Fanshawe
7 of the last 18 winners were Irish-bred
9 of the last 18 winners came from a low-figure draw
No winner from stall 1 in the last 18 runnings
7 of the last 18 winners returned a double-figure price

4.20 - Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m4f ITV

Hardwicke Stakes Recent Winners

2022 – Broome (6/1)
2021 – Wonderful Tonight (5/1)
2020 – Fanny Logan (17/2)
2019 – Defoe (11/4 fav)
2018 – Crystal Ocean (4/7 fav)
2017 – Idaho (9/2)
2016 – Dartmouth (10/1)
2015 – Snow Sky (12/1)
2014 – Telescope (7/4 fav)
2013 – Thomas Chippendale (8/1)
2012 – Sea Moon (3/1 fav)
2011 – Await the Dawn (4/6 fav)
2010 – Harbinger (8/11 fav)
2009 – Bronze Cannon (8/1)
2008 – Macarthur (11/8 fav)
2007 – Maraahel (10/3)
2006 – Maraahel (9/2)
2005 – Bandari (10/1)
2004 – Doyen (6/5 fav)
2003 – Indian Creek (14/1)

Hardwicke Stakes Key Trends

20/20 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
20/20 – Had won a Group 2 or 3 previously
17/20 – Placed last time out
17/20 – Had won over 1m4f before
14/20 – Had run at Ascot before
13/20 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
13/20 – Aged 4 years-old (inc 11 of last 12 winners)
13/20 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (4), Mark Johnston (2) or Sir Michael Stoute (7)
13/20 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
12/20 – Placed favourites
9/20 – Won their previous race
7/20 – Ran at Epsom last time out (Coronation Cup)
7/20 – Winning favourites
5/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
14 of the last 17 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
12 of the last 17 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
No winner from stall 1 in the last 17 runnings
7 of the last 17 winners came from stalls 2-5 (inc)
Sir Michael Stoute has trained 11 winners in total

5.00 - Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-110) 6f ITV4

Wokingham Stakes Recent Winners

2022 – Rohaan (18/1)
2021 – Rohaan (8/1)
2020 – Hey Jonesy (18/1)
2019 – Cape Byron (7/2 fav)
2018 – Bacchus (33/1)
2017 – Out Do (25/1)
2016 – Outback Traveller (10/1)
2015 – Interception (10/1)
2014 – Baccarat (9/1)
2013 – York Glory (14/1)
2012 – Dandy Boy (33/1)
2011 – Deacon Blues (15/2)
2010 – Laddies Poker Two (9/2 fav)
2009 – High Standing (8/1)
2008 – Big Timer I (20/1)
2007 – Dark Missile (22/1)
2006 – Baltic King (10/1)
2005 – Iffraaj (9/4 fav)
2004 – Lafi (6/1 fav)
2003 – Ratio (14/1) / Fayr Jag (10/1)  (dead-heat)

Wokingham Stakes Key Trends

23/23 – Had won before over 6f or 7f
21/23 – Had no more than 4 runs that season­­
21/23 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
20/23 – Finished sixth or better last time out
20/23 – Had won a race over 6f before
19/23 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/23 – Had at least 2 runs already that season
14/23 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
14/23 – Had run at Ascot before (8 had won here)
11/23 – Ran at either Ascot, Goodwood or Newmarket last time
7/23 – Won their previous race
5/23 – Won by the favourite
11 of the last 17 winners carried 9-3 or less in weight
10 of the last 17 winners returned 14/1 or shorter
13 of the last 17 winners came from a double-figure draw
12 of the last 13 winners came from a double-figure stall
9 of the last 12 runnings - the top 2 finishers both came from double-figure stalls
Horse from stall 15 has been placed in 3 of the last 11 runnings
Since 1980 there have been only 9 winning favourites
Since 1980 there have been 33 winners returning a double-figure price

5.35 - Golden Gates Handicap (3yo) 1m2f ITV4

Just the 3 previous runnings
Missed the Cut (5/2 fav) won this race in 2022
Foxes Tales (13/2) won this race in 2021
Highland Chief (20/1) won this race in 2020
Trainer George Boughey won this race in 2022
Trainer Andrew Balding won this race in 2021
Trainer Paul and Oliver Cole won this race in 2020
All 3 winners came between stalls 13-16 (inc)

6.10 - Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 2m5f159y ITV4

Queen Alexandra Stakes Recent Winners

2022 – Stratum (10/1)
2021 – Stratum (4/1)
2020 – Who Dares Wins (Evs fav)
2019 – Cleonte (7/2)
2018 – Pallasator (11/2)
2017 – Oriental Fox (10/1)
2016 – Commissioned (12/1)
2015 – Oriental Fox (4/1)
2014 – Pique Sous (11/4)
2013 – Chiberta King (8/1)
2012 – Simenon (11/4 fav)
2011 – Swingkeel (11/2)
2010 – Bergo (10/1)
2009 – Caracciola (6/1)
2008 – Honolulu (7/4 fav)
2007 – Enjoy The Moment (6/1)
2006 – Baddam (11/2)
2005 – Cruzspiel (10/1)
2004 – Corrib Eclipse (25/1)
2003 – Cover Up (4/5 fav)

Queen Alexandra Stakes Key Trends

18/20 – Finished unplaced last time out
13/20 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
13/20 – Had run at Ascot before
10/20 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years old
8/20 – Won by a NH yard
7/20 – Irish-trained winners
4/20 – Winning favourites
4/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
4/20 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/20 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/20 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/20 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
2/20 – Ridden by Joe Fanning
12 of the last 17 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
12 of the last 17 winners came from stalls 9-16 (inc)
11 of the last 16 winners came from a double-figure stall

 

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