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Old Roan Chase Free Tips and Trends

Tuesday, October 19, 2021

Run over 2m4f at Aintree racecourse the Monet’s Garden Old Roan Chase is a Grade Two Limited Handicap contest that gives National Hunt fans a few early-season pointers on how some old favourites will fair over the next six months or so.

It’s run on the Mildmay course, with 16 fences to jump and was first staged back in 2004 – Star names like 3-time winner Monet’s Garden, in which the race is now named after, Albertas Run and Kauto Star are all well-known past winners of the race.

Look out for trainers Nicky Richards (3 wins), Paul Nicholls (3 wins) and Philip Hobbs (2 wins), who both have good records in the race.

Here at SUREWIN we look back at past winners and highlights the key stats ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Sunday 24th October.

 

Past Old Roan Chase Winners

2020 - Nuts Well (18/1)
2019 – Forest Bihan (9/2)
2018 - Frodon (9/2)
2017 - Smad Place (12/1)
2016 – Third Intention (5/1)
2015 – Sound Investment (7/1)
2014 – Wishfull Thinking (14/1)
2013 – Conquisto (17/2)
2012 – For Non Stop (4/1 jfav)
2011 – Albertas Run (5/2)
2010 – Monet’s Garden (4/1)
2009 – Monet’s Garden (12/1)
2008 – Knowhere (8/1)
2007 – Monet’s Garden (9/4)
2006 – Kauto Star (Evs fav)
2005 – Impek (4/1)
2004 – Farmer Jack (14/1)

Monet’s Garden Old Roan Chase Betting Trends

15/17 – Won over 2m4f before (fences)
14/17 – Last ran 5 months or more ago
14/17 – Raced at Aintree in the past
13/17 – Having their first run of the season
10/17 – Raced at either Aintree (4) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
10/17 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
9/17 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
8/17 – Won by an Irish bred horse
5/17 – Had won at Aintree in the past
4/17 – Had an official rating between 165 and 168
3/17 – Won by the Nicky Richards yard
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/17 – Won by a past winner of the race
2/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 15/2

SUREWIN VERDICT: A decent renewal of the Grade Two Old Roan Chase as racing returns to Aintree this Sunday. Being a limited handicap the top-rated in the field off a mark of 160 will be the Dan Skelton-trained ALLMANKIND - he’ll have to shoulder 11st 10lbs. This popular front runner will back another bold bid from the front and will be a lot fitter for a recent third over hurdles at Chepstow. Back over fences today, he’s 4-from-5 over the bigger obstacles, with his only flop coming in the Arkle last season. The flat track will suit and even though his front running style suggests stamina doubts over this 2m4f trip, let’s not forget he won over 2m 4 1/2f at Ayr last April - he plugged on well on his return run last time to suggest it will bring him on a lot and is taken to get back to winning ways here. He’ll be taking on last year’s winner of the race - Nuts Well - who landed this by 1 ½ lengths last season, but is now another year older (10) and is also now rated 4lbs higher. Add in that his regular jockey, Danny McMenamin can’t claim 3lbs this year, then this Ann Hamilton runner is really racing off a 7lb higher mark this time. He’s certainly a player still and returned earlier this month better than ever with a smooth win at Kelso. Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race three times in the last 17 years and pins his hopes on Tamaroc Du Mathan this year. He’s won 2 of his 4 chase starts, but the worry would be that he unseated last time at Ayr - beaten at the time - in the race Allmankind landed. Itchy Feet was a fair third in the Marsh Chase here back in April and can go well too, but has become a hard horse to win with - he’s now six races without success. Course winner, Midnight Shadow and Fanion D’Estruval would have a squeak on their best form, but need to bounce back from poor ends to last season. So, of the rest, a chance is taken on the Emma Lavelle runner - KILLER CLOWN (e/w) - as a saver. This 7 year-old gets in here with just 10-4 in weight and returns here having had a wind op over the summer. Ground and track look fine, and he stays this 2m4f well - often finishing off his races well.

 

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