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Newmarket TV Trends and Tips: Thurs 23rd Sept 2021

Tuesday, September 21, 2021

More LIVE RTV horse racing action on Thursday 23rd September as the cameras head to Newmarket for the opening day of their three-day Cambridgeshire Meeting.

We’ve four standout races on ITV on day one that include the Listed Rose Bowl Stakes and the Group Three Tattersalls Stakes.

As always, we are on hand with the key trends and our free tips on all the main races.


Newmarket Free Racing Tips & Trends (Thurs 23rd Sept 2021)


1.35 – Federation Of Bloodstock Agents Nursery Handicap Cl2 (2yo) 1m RTV

11/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
11/11 – Foaled in Feb or later
10/11 – Placed in the top three last time out
10/11 – Won between 0-2 times before
10/11 – Never raced at the track before
9/11 – Carried 8-10 or more in weight
9/11 – Won over 6f or 7f before
9/11 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Foaled in March or later
6/11 – Rated between 80-85 (inc)
6/11 – Placed favourites
4/11 – Won last time out
3/11 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
3/11 – Winners from stall 9
3/11 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/11 – Ridden by William Buick
1/11 – Winning favourites
1/11 – Winners from stall 1
Lost In Space (15/8) won the race in 2021

SUREWIN VERDICT: The Richard Hannon yard are only 6-from-139 (4%) with their 2 year-olds at the track so their Desert Angel has this stat to overcome. Noisy Night, from the Roger Charlton yard that won this race in 2011, will catch the eye of punters after winning his last three and looks a fast-improving 2 year-old, but these wins have all been on the AW at Kempton so today’s conditions will be a lot different. Mr Professor is another that’s going the right way after smooth wins at Kempton and Bath recently, but the call is the Mark Johnston runner - CHOIRMASTER. This juvenile has won his last two in facile fashion at Beverley and Bath, so should have more to come. Into a handicap for the first time on a fair mark and jockey William Buick, who’s got a 26% record riding 2 year-olds at the track, is a decent booking in the saddle. The Johnston yard won this in 2015. Of the rest, Stozzi has a squeak but does have a bit to prove over this 1m trip, while the Varian runner - Sed Maarib - was running on well over 7f last time at Doncaster to suggest this step up in trip will suit.


2.10 – British Stallion Studs EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 6f RTV

2 previous running
Trainer Charlie Fellowes won this race in 2020
Trainer Andrew Balding won this race in 2019
Trainer Michael Dods has a 33% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Mick Appleby is 0-from-26 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey William Buick has a 22% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track

SUREWIN VERDICT: With the Mick Appleby yard being 0-from-26 with their 4+ year-olds at the course their Zim Baby is overlooked despite an improved third at Ponty last time out. Appleby also has the bottom weight in the race - Restless Endeavour in the contest. The winner that day was the Michael Dods runner - GALA FORCE MAYA - and I think this mare can uphold that form. The Dods yard have a decent strike-rate with their older horses here at the track and the 3lb rise in the ratings has been offset with connections booking the useful Adam Farragher, who can claim 5lbs, to do the steering. LOVELY BREEZE will have her supporters too after dropping in grade here since running in a Listed contest at Ponty last time out (6th of 12). Prior to that she won well at Goodwood and on that form would enter the mix. Of the rest, the Andrew Balding yard won this race in 2019 and try again with Lady Quickstep, but she faded quickly last time over this trip when sent off favourite so does need to bounce back.


2.45 – Tattersalls Stakes (Registered as the Somerville Tattersall Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 (2yo) 7f RTV

11/11 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
11/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
11/11 – Drawn in stalls 2 (4), 5 (4) or 7 (3)
11/11 – Won between 1-3 times before
10/11 – Foaled in Feb or later
10/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
8/11 – Favourites placed in the top 3
5/11 – Winning favourites
4/11 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/11 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/11 – Irish trained
2/11 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard
1/11 – Winners from stall 1
La Barrosa (1st 4/7 fav) won this race in 2020

SUREWIN VERDICT: Several promising sorts on show here - including Modern Games for Godolphin, plus Harrow, who has won his last three for the Andrew Balding yard. Claim The Crown was a fair third at this level last time out in France too and should go well too, while Ribhi didn’t get the best of runs last time out (5th of 9) at Doncaster so if you can forgive that run is another to consider. However, it’s hard to get away from the Andre Fabre-trained TRIDENT, who was a close second in the G1 Prix Morny in France last time out. This is the best form on offer here and now dropped into a G3 should get back to winning ways. The step up to 7f also looks a good move having run on well over 6f the last day. Of the rest, Ryan Moore catches the eye booked to ride the Richard Hughes runner RING OF BEARA (e/w). He was an easy winner at Ffos Las last time out in a maiden and even though this is a big step up in grade is clearly thought good enough to compete at this level and he’ll also have every assistance from the saddle with former champion - Ryan Moore - booked to ride.  


3.20 – Jockey Club Rose Bowl Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 2m RTV

10/11 – Had run in the last 5 weeks
9/11 – Didn’t win last time out
9/11 – Placed favourites
8/11 – Had run at the course before (3 won)
8/11 – Drawn in stalls 5 or lower
8/11 – Won 3 or more times
8/11 – Had won over at least 1m6f before
7/11 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
5/11 – Winning favourites
4/11 – Trained by John Gosden
3/11 – Ridden by William Buick
2/11 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
Ranch Hand (15/2) won the race in 2020
Withhold (10/11 fav) won the race in 2019

SUREWIN VERDICT: The Mark Johnston-trained NAYEF ROAD normally has to see the back of top stayer Stradivarius, but he’s not in opposition this time and that means he should have a much better chance of gaining a deserved win. This consistent stayer was last seen running third in the G2 Doncaster Cup a few weeks ago, which was another solid effort, but is now down to Listed grade here and is also a proven course winner here at the track. His main challengers look to be Roberto Escobarr, but this William Haggas runner has to give 3lbs away to Nayef Road, while course winner - Max Vega - is another to respect having run a solid fifth in the Ebor Handicap last time out. Island Brave and Rhythmic Intent are the two last-time-out winners in the field, but would need another step forward in this better race. The danger to the pick can come from MORANDO (e/w). Yes, this Balding runner hasn’t won since Oct 2019, but last time showed signs that his turn might not be far away again with a close third at Chester in a Listed race. The step up to 2m will be fine and Oisin Murphy is a further plus in the saddle.




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