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Newmarket Tips and Trends (Fri 8th Oct 21)

Tuesday, October 5, 2021

More LIVE ITV action on Friday 8th October for day one of the two-day Dubai Future Champions Festival at Newmarket. Plenty to get stuck into with the Group One Bet365 Fillies’ Mile the clear feature race, but with the Cornwallis, Oh So Sharp and Challenge Stakes supporting then there is a lot to look forward to.

As always, we’ll have all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle, plus our verdicts on each race.



Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (RTV/ITV)


1.50 – Newmarket Academy Godolphin Beacon Project Cornwallis Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 5f ITV4

16/18 – Had won over 5f previously
14/18 – Won at least twice or more before
13/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
13/18 – Rated 98 or more
13/18 – Winning distance – 1 ½ or less
13/18 – Ran within the last 30 days
13/18 – Had raced 5 or more times
12/18 – Foaled in March or later
11/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
11/18 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
9/18 – Filly winners
7/18 – Raced at Ayr last time out
7/18 – Won their last race
5/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
3/18 – Ridden by Richard Kingscote
2 of the last 7 winners trained by Jonathan Portman
2 of the last 12 winners trained by Kevin Ryan
2 of the last 12 winners ridden by Jamie Spencer
2 of the last 4 winners came from stall 3
3 of the last 6 winners came from stalls 11 or higher
Winter Power (10/1) won the race in 2020

SUREWIN VERDICT: French raider, Papa Don’t Preach, was a close fourth in the G2 Flying Childers last time out and now dropped into a G3 has to be respected. The Hugo Palmer runner - Hierarchy - is another for the shortlist after running a head second in the G2 Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury last time out. But this drop to 5f isn’t sure  to suit - having been a bit slowly away that day, while if the ground remains on the soft side then this is an unknown - all runs have been on good or quicker. Tardis, Mitbaahy and Illustrating, but the two I like here are GUILDED and TWILIGHT JET. The former was a shock 100/1 4th in the G1 Cheveley Park Stakes last time out at HQ and the drop back to 5f looks a good move having got tired in the closing stages over 6f. She’s run well too on softer ground. The Irish raider - TWILIGHT JET - is the other pick. This 2 year-old has been running well over 6f and 7f recently and was last seen running a close 5th in the G1 Middle Park Stakes. This drop back to 5f should suit and is also down into a G3. The ground should be ideal, while it’s interesting that connections also bring over Up Above to help with the travel arrangements.


2.25 – Godolphin Lifetime Care Oh So Sharp Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV4

16/17 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
16/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/17 – Had between 1-2 wins already
15/17 – Had between 1-3 career runs
14/17 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Won last time out
13/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/17 – Foaled in March or later
12/17 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
10/17 – Unplaced favourites
10/17 – Had won over 7f or further before
9/17 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
9/17 – Irish bred
6/17 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/17 – Trained by Roger Varian (2 of last 4 winners)
2/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore

SUREWIN VERDICT: Perfect News will be popular here - being the only CD winner in the field and having won well here last time out. But the last win was in a handicap and this is a fair step up in grade. She’s still one of the top-rated in the field and commands respect but you just worry for her that something less exposed will improve past her. Ryan Moore catches the eye riding the O’Meara-trained Rishes Baar, while Pearl Glory has to be considered after a fair second in a G3 last time out - she’s up in trip here to 7f though for the first time. Allayaali has won two of her three starts and clearly has ability too and Fast Attack has shown a good level of form to date too. But the picks here are BANSHEE andGOOD AMERICAN.The former was an easy winner at Yarmouth two runs back and had an excuse the last day at Doncaster in the May Hill Stakes when she lost a shoe in the race. The drop back to 7f will also suit and the blinkers that were on last time remain in place. The other selection - Good American - has only had the one run - winning at Salisbury last month. She’s got some fancy entries so is clearly well thought of and a certain Frankie Dettori has been booked to ride. The Beckett yard have also won this race a few times in the last 17 years.


3.00 – The Godolphin Stud & Stable Awards Challenge Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV4

18/18 – Won a Listed or Group race previously
18/18 – Won over 7f previously
18/18 – Raced 3 or more times that season
16/18 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
15/18 – Won 3 or more times previously
15/18 – Winners from stall 10 or lower
14/18 –  Raced at Newmarket (Rowley) previously
14/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
13/18 – Officially rated 113 or higher
12/18 – Priced 7/1 or lower
10/18 – Placed in their last race
9/18 – Favourites placed
8/18 – Won at Newmarket (Rowley) previously
7/18 – Raced at either Ascot (3) or Goodwood (4) last time out
6/18 – Won their previous race
5/18 - Favourites that won
2/18 – Trained by Henry Candy
1/18 – Filly/Mare winners

SUREWIN VERDICT: The Godolphin boys look to hold a strong hand here with both Al Suhail and D’bai solid performers in and around this level. The pair are closely-matched on the ratings too, with just a pound between them, but they both also have to give 3lbs away to most of the rest. With that in mind, the pick here is the Richard Hannon-trained CHINDIT, who gets a handy 2lbs from the Godolphin pair. But this 3 year-old is actually the top-rated in the field anyway and has been running well in top-level races this season too. Therefore, the drop back into a G2 will help and he returns to Newmarket - the scene of his fair 5th in the 2000 Guineas here in May. That’s solid form, but the key could be this drop back to 7f - he’s 4-from-5 over this trip! It’s hard to ignore the Aidan O’Brien runner - Horoscope - with Ryan Moore riding, but he’s looked as if he wants further than this 7f trip in recent runs to me. Safe Voyage isn’t getting any younger at 8 and recent runs suggest his age might just be catching up with him. CD winners With Thanks and DOUBLE OR BUBBLE are the other to respect and it could be worth having a small interest on the last-named. This Chris Wall runner has only finished out of the first two once from her 8 runs on the turf and is a proven CD winner here too. His form over this 7f is also impressive 1-1-1-2-2-2, while she also gets a handy 3lbs from most of the others.


3.35 – Bet365 Fillies´ Mile (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV4

17/17 - Finished in the first three last time out
17/17 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
16/17 - Yet to win a Group 1
15/17 – Finished in the first two last time out
15/17 – Foaled in Feb or later
15/17 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
13/17 – Had won between 2-3 times before
13/17 – Favourites that finished in the top three
12/17 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Won last time out
11/17 – Had won a Group race before
10/17 - Foaled in Feb or March
8/17 - Winning favourites (or joint)
7/17 – Irish-trained winners
7/17 - Raced at Doncaster last time out
7/17 – Irish bred
4/17 - Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/17 – US bred
3/17 – Won by trainer John Gosden
3/17 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
2/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
5 of the last 7 winners have been Irish-trained

SUREWIN VERDICT: It’s hard to get away from the main Gosden runner here - INSPIRAL - who has won her opening three runs in easy fashion and looks a filly that is destined to go to the very top. She was last seen winning the May Hill Stakes at Doncaster by an easy 3 ¾ lengths - with another runner here - Prosperous Voyage - back in second. She’s also beaten Wild Beauty this season - when beating that Godolphin rival by 3 ½ lengths at Sandown in July. It’s hard to not see the selection having the measure of these two again here. Therefore, her main challengers look to be the Aidan O’Brien runner - Concert Hall - and Mise En Scene. The former was a G3 winner in Ireland last time out and ran on well that day over 7f to suggest this step up to a mile could bring out more improvement. Mise En Scene is 2-from-2 for the James Ferguson yard and took another step forward last time when winning the G3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood. More needed here, but she’s another that could improve for the longer trip. However, of those at a bigger price a chance is taken on the Jessie Harrington runner - MAGICAL LAGOON (e/w). The yard has had another top season and this filly took a step forward last time out at the Curragh to win over a mile on just her second start.


4.10 – Bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap Cl2 (3yo) 1m4f ITV4

7 previous runnings
6/7 – Had won at least twice before
6/7 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
5/7 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
5/7 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
4/7 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
3/7 – Ran at Haydock last time out
2/7 – Priced 8/1 in the betting
2/7 – Ridden by William Buick
2/7 – Came from stall 17
1/7 – Winning favourites

SUREWIN VERDICT: We end the LIVE ITV action with a competitive middle-distance handicap for these 3 year-olds. Jockey William Buick has won two of the last 7 runnings so his mount - Siskany - is a good place to start. This Godolphin runner was a close second at Goodwood over this trip last time and has been gelded since that run too. He’s, however, up another 5lbs here and it won’t be easy carrying topweight here of 9-7. Godolphin also run MARSHALL PLAN (e/w) - trained by the Gosden yard, and with Frankie Dettori riding is sure to be popular. A recent close second at Yarmouth was a fair effort - that came over 1m6f, so the drop back in trip here to 1m4f could be the answer. He’s only up a pound in the ratings but gets in here with only 8-10 in weight to carry - that’s 6lbs less than last time. Boltaway is the only CD winner in the field and has won four of his last five starts too. But as a result, has risen up the ratings and is up another 6lbs here - he’s certainly one to respect, but any rain would also be a worry as his best form has been on good or quicker. Injazati is another that the eye is drawn to, having won his last three. He’s up another 7lbs here and is up from 1m2f to 1m4f this time. Clearly an improving sort and I know the Fellowes yard quite like him so can’t be discounted. Love Is Golden, Southern Voyage and Moshaawer are others to respect but the other pick is CANDLEFORD (e/w). This William Haggas runner was disqualified last time out at Ascot when second after the jockey weighed in too light. He’s since been gelded and manages to get in here off the same rating. Jockey Adam Farragher, who was on last time too, keeps the ride despite that weigh-in error, but he’s been in great form of late and is able to claim a handy 5lbs again here. With just 8-3 in weight this Kingman gelding could be very dangerous.

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