Here at SUREWIN we take you through the LIVE ITV races on the third and final day of the 2024 Newmarket July Meeting this Saturday (^13th July).

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.12 - Bedford Lodge Hotel & Spa Fillies’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 7f

15/15 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Didn’t win last time out
14/15 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
12/15 - Had won over at least 7f before
10/15 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
10/15 – Rated between 83-93 (inc)
8/15 – Placed favourites
6/15 – Drawn in stalls 10, 11 or 13 (2 each)
4/15 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/15 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/15 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/15 – Winning favourites

Surewin Best Bet: KEY TO COTAI
Surewin Danger: HARD TO RESIST 

2.50 - bet365 Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

20/22 – Had won over 7f or further previously
17/22 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
16/22 – Had 2 or more runs that season
12/22 – Unplaced in their last race
10/22 – Winners from stall 8 or higher
9/22 – Favourites unplaced
5/22 – Won their last race
5/22 – Winning Favourites
2/22 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/22 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (3 of the last 6)
The Richard Hannon yard have won 3 of the last 11 runnings

Surewin Best Bet: QIRAT
Surewin Danger: LOCAL HERO 

3.25 - Bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

21/22 – Won over at least 6f previously
20/22 – Placed in their last race
19/22 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
17/22 – Won their latest race
15/22 – Won by either a March or April foal
13/22 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
12/22 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
10/22 – Favourites unplaced
7/22 – Winning Favourites
4/22 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
4/22 – Winners from stall 3
5/22 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard (4 of the last 14)
3/22 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of the last 7)
3/22 - Ridden by William Buick
3/22 - Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/22 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of last 11 runnings)
2/22 – Trained by Mick Channon
Trainer Charlie Appleby has won 4 of the last 8 runnings
City Of Troy (4/6 fav) won this race in 2023

Surewin Best Bet: ARABIE
Surewin Danger: ANCIENT TRUTH

4.00 - bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV

21/22 – Won over 7f previously
20/22 – Raced 3 or more times that season
16/22 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
13/22 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/22 – Winners from stall 14 or higher
12/22 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
11/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
10/22 – Placed in their last race
10/22 – Returned between 10/1 and 16/1 in the betting
9/22 – Horses from a double-figure stall that 1st, 2nd and 3rd
4/22 – Favourites (inc joint and co)
3/22 – Trained by Richard Fahey (3 of the last 13)
3/22 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 15)
9 of the last 13 winners came from double-figure draws
15 of the last 16 winners carried 9st or more
10 of the last 16 winners carried between 9st and 9st 3lbs
Biggles (5/1) won the race in 2023
Motakhayyel won the race in 2020 and 2021

Surewin Best Bet: MOTABSHIR
Surewin Danger: DARK THIRTY

4.35 – My Pension Expert July Cup Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV

Recent July Cup Winners.....

2023 Shaquille (5/2 jfav)
2022 Alcohol Free (14/1)
2021 Starman (9/2)
2020 Oxted (12/1)
2019 Ten Sovereigns (9/2)
2018 U S Navy Flag (8/1)
2017 Harry Angel (9/2)
2016 Limato (9/2 fav)
2015 Muhaarar (2/1 jfav)
2014 Slade Power (7/4 fav)
2013 Lethal Force (9/2)
2012 Mayson (20/1)
2011 Dream Ahead (7/1)

July Cup Betting Trends

21/22 – Aged 5 or younger
20/22 – Had won over 6f before
18/22 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
17/22 – Had between 1-3 previous runs that season
17/22 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
17/22 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
17/22 – Won by a horse trained in the UK
13/22 – Placed last time out
10/22 – Ran last time out in either the King’s Stand Stakes or QEII Jubilee Stakes
10/22 – Unplaced favourites
9/22 – Won their previous race
6/22 – Winning favourites
4/22 – Irish-trained winners (O’Brien trained 2 of the last 6 winners)
3/22 – Filly winners
2/22 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (2 of the last 6)
2/22 – Ridden by Adam Kirby (2 of the last 11)
2/22 – Trained By Hughie Morrison
1/22 – French-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 12 years is 7/1
Just one horse aged older than 5 has won since 1968
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 5 times before (1999, 2001, 2010, 2018 & 2019) – joint winning most trainer

Surewin Best Bet: INISHERIN
Surewin Danger: REGIONAL