More LIVE ITV horse racing action this midweek as the cameras head to flat racing’s HQ – Newmarket racecourse – to take in four races on Tuesday (12th April) and Wednesday (13th April)

Several early season Classic pointers to take in over the week with the Nell Gwyn and Craven Stakes both key trials ahead of the 1,000 and 2,000 Guineas run at the track next month.

As always, here at SUREWIN, we’ve got it all covered with the key trends, plus our tips on each of the LIVE races.

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/Racing TV)

Tuesday 12th April 2022

1.50 – Weatherbys Bloodstock Pro Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+) ITV4 6f (Row)

Just 5 previous runnings
4/5 – Carried 8-13 or more in weight
4/5 – Returned 9/1 or shorter
4/5 - Drawn in stalls 5 or lower
3/5 - aged 4 years-old
2/5 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
0/5 – Winning favourites
Trainer Michael Dods has a 38% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Amanda Perrett won the 2020 running
Trainer Roger Varian won the 2019 running
Trainer Ed Walker won the 2018 running
Trainer Charles Hills won the 2017 running
Trainer Kevin Ryan won the 2016 running

SUREWIN BEST BET: NEW SCIENCE
DANGER:  TACARIB BAY

2.25 – bet365 European Free Handicap (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo) ITV4 7f (Row)

15/15 – Had won between 1-2 times before
14/15 – Rated between 101 and 108
14/15 – Raced at Kempton, Newmarket, Ascot or Newbury last time out
14/15 – Didn’t win last time out
13/15 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Last ran 5 ½ or longer months ago
12/15 – Drawn in stalls 2-6 (inc)
11/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/15 – Finished 2^nd or 3^rd last time out
9/15 – Yet to win over 7f
7/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Won by the Hills stable
4/15 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/15 - Trained by Andrew Balding (last two runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/2

SUREWIN BEST BET: CHIPSTEAD
DANGER:  GALE FORCE MAYA

3.00 – bet365 Earl Of Sefton Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (4yo+) ITV4 1m1f (Row)

14/14 – Had won over a least a mile in the past
13/14 – Favourites placed in the top three
12/14 – Last ran 5 months or more ago
11/14 – Had raced at the track before (5 won)
10/14 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Won at least 3 times in the past
10/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/14 – Had won over 1m1f or further in the past
7/14 – Had won a Group/Listed race before
7/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
6/14 – Drawn in stalls 8 (3) or 10 (3)
4/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Trained by John Gosden
3/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam
2/14 – Ridden by William Buick
1/14 – Winners from stall 1
6 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 2-4 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 6/1

SUREWIN BEST BET: MASTER OF THE STARS
DANGER:  CATCH TWENTYTWO

3.35 - Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo) ITV4 7f (Row)

17/18 – Were having their first run of the season
15/18 – Had won between 1-2 times previously
14/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/18 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Had only won over 6f or 7f before
12/18 – Placed favourites
11/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/18 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley)
9/18 – Had won over 7f before
9/18 – Won last time out
8/18 – Had won a Listed or Group race in the past
8/18 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
6/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (won it 7 times in all)
4/18 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 5)
2/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/18 – Trained by Mick Channon
1/18 – Went onto win the 1,000 Guineas
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1
Trainer George Boughey has a 33% (2 from 6) record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey William Buick has a 27% record riding 3 year-olds at the track

SUREWIN BEST BET: CACHET
DANGER:  HELLO YOU

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Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/Racing TV)

Wednesday 13th April 2022

1.50 – bet365.com Handicap (Class 2) (3yo) - 6f (Row)

15/15 – Had won over 6f before
14/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
13/15 – Came from stall 8 or lower
13/15 – Rated between 86-93 (inc)
11/15 – Carried 8-13 or less
11/15 – Had between 1-4 previous runs
11/15 – Won after 5 ½ months or more off
11/15 – Had won just once before
9/15 – Won from stalls 2, 6 or 8
9/15 – Won last time out
7/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/15 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/15 – Ridden by Silvestre de Sousa
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 5/1
Trainer George Boughey has a 33% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer John Gosden has a 21% record with his 3 year-olds at the track

SUREWIN BEST BET: DIG TWO
DANGER:  LUCKY MAN

2.25 – bet365 Wood Ditton Maiden Stakes (Class 3) (3yo) - 1m (Row)

13/13 – Having their debut runs
11/13 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
9/13 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
8/13 – Favourites placed
6/13 – Winning favourites
4/13 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
2/13 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/13 – Trained by William Haggas
1/13 – Winners from stalls 1-4 (inc)
The winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 17/2
Trainer Charlie Appleby has a 27% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer John Gosden has a 21% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey William Buick has a 27% record riding 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Frankie Dettori has a 24% record riding 3 year-olds at the track

SUREWIN BEST BET: SECRET STATE
DANGER:  I AM THE SEA

3.00 – Connaught Access Flooring Abernant Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+) 6f (Row)

14/15 – Won over 6f before
14/15 – Aged 4 or older
13/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
11/15 – Rated between 106 and 114
11/15 – Had run at Newmarket before
11/15 – Won at least 4 times before
10/15 – Ran 5 months or more ago
10/15 – Favourites placed in the top three
10/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/15 – Irish bred
4/15 – Winning favourites (just 2 in the last 10)
4/15 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
4/15 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/15 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/15 – Won by the Hills stable
2/15 – Winners from stall 1 or 2
The last 10 winners were aged between 4-7 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

SUREWIN BEST BET: EMBRO RIVER
DANGER:  JUMBY
 

3.35 - bet365 Craven Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 1) (3yo) 1m (Row)

16/18 – Having their first run of the season
15/18 – Rated 110 or higher
14/18 – Yet to win over a mile
14/18 – Came from the top three in the betting
14/18 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or more
13/18 – Had won over 7f before
13/18 – Had won no more than twice before
11/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
10/18 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
10/18 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before (4 won)
7/18 – Finished unplaced last time out
7/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon (4 of the last 11)
5/18 – Won last time out
2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/18 - Trained by Charlie Appleby (2 of the last 3)
1/18 – Irish-trained winners
1/18 – Went onto win the 2,000 Guineas
9 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 5 or less
4 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 1
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won this race
The average winning SP in the last 9 renewals is 9/2
Trainer Charlie Appleby has a 27% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey William Buick has a 27% record riding 3 year-olds at the track

SUREWIN BEST BET: NATIVE TRAIL
DANGER:  CLAYMORE