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Monday 27th Dec 2021 TV Trends and Tips (Chepstow and Kempton)

Monday, December 20, 2021

No let-up for the top-class racing action over the festive period with another huge day of National Hunt action on Monday 27th December.

The ITV cameras head to Kempton for three races for the second and final day of their Winter Festival, while they are also at Chepstow to take in the Welsh National - Did you know, 17 of the last 19 Welsh National winners were aged 9 or younger, and 13 of the last 19 winners carried 10-8 or less in weight?

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on SUREWIN with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

 

Kempton Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

 

1.20 – Ladbrokes Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m ITV4

10/10 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
9/10 – 1st or 2nd last time out
9/10 – Between 1-2 Chase wins before
9/10 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Favourites placed in top 2
8/10 – Irish or French bred
8/10 – Won last time out
6/10 – Aged 5 years-old
4/10 – Ran at Sandown last time out
4/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/10 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/10 – Winning favourite
3/10 – Had won over fences at Kempton before
Shishkin (1/3 fav) won the race in 2020

SUREWIN VERDICT: EDWARDSTONE
SUREWIN DANGER: DO YOUR JOB

 

1.55 – Play Ladbrokes 5-A-Side On Football Mares´ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m110y ITV4

14/14 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
13/14 – Priced 10/1 or shorter
12/14 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
11/14 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles previously
10/14 – Favourites that were placed in the top 3
8/14 – Won over 3m previously
7/14 – Won their last race
7/14 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
6/14 – Ran at the track previously
5/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Aged 5 years-old
2/14 – Raced at Newbury last time out
Molly Ollys Wishes (9/2) won the race in 2020

SUREWIN VERDICT: CODED MESSAGE
SUREWIN DANGER: EMMPRESSIVE LADY

 

2.30 – Ladbrokes Desert Orchid Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

12/14 – Aged 8 or younger
11/14 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
11/14 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
10/14 – Run at the track previously
9/14 – Won 4 (or more) times over fences
9/14 – Winning favourites
9/14 – Officially Rated 160+
7/14 – French bred
7/14 – Ran at Sandown last time out
4/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/14 – Trained by Alan King
Nube Negra (20/1) won the race in 2020
Bun Doran (4/1) won the race in 2019
Altior (1/8 fav) won the race in 2018

SUREWIN VERDICT: SHISHKIN
SUREWIN DANGER: GREANETEEN

 

3.10 - Play Ladbrokes 1-2 Free On Football Handicap Chase Cl2 3m ITV4

14/14 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
13/14 – Priced between 7/2 and 12/1
13/14 – Aged 8 or younger
12/14 – Carried 10-13 or more in weight
10/14 – Won between 2-3 (chase) before
8/14 – Favourites Unplaced
5/14 – Officially Rated between 122-129
5/14 – Ran at Kempton previously
5/14 – Won over 3m (or further) previously
5/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
4/14 – Winning favourites (joint)
3/14 – Ran at Ascot in their last race
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Royale Pagaille (9/2 fav) won this race 12 months ago

SUREWIN VERDICT: CAP DU NORD
SUREWIN DANGER: FLEGMATIK

 

Chepstow Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

 

1.05 – Watch Racing Online Free With Coral Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m3 1/2f ITV4

17/18 – French (10) or Irish (7) bred
16/18 – Won over 2 ½ miles (fences) previously
15/18 – Priced 10/1 or shorter
14/18 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
13/18 – Won between 2-3 times (fences) previously
11/18 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
10/18 – Placed in the first three last time out
8/18 – Aged 7 or younger
6/18 – Raced at Chepstow last time out
6/18 – Won their last race
6/18 – Trained by Venetia Williams
3/18 – Ridden by Charlie Deutsch
2/18 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/18 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
Cepage (11/4) won this race in 2020
Tiguer won this race in 2019
Doitforthevillage won this race in 2018
Aso won this race in 2016

SUREWIN VERDICT: WHEN YOU'RE READY
SUREWIN DANGER: PAINT THE DREAM

 

1.40 – Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Cl1 (3yo) 2m ITV4

16/17 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
16/17 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
14/17 – Won between 0-2 times previously
11/17 – French bred
10/17 – Won their last race
6/17 – Winning favourites
5/17 – Raced at the track previously
5/17 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/17 – Raced at Newbury last time out
2/17 – Trained by Alan King

SUREWIN VERDICT: PORTICELLO
SUREWIN DANGER: MAGISTRATO

 

2.10 – Coral ‘Fail To Finish’ Free Bets Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+ 0-145) 2m 7 1/2f ITV4

17/19 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
16/19 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
15/19 – Won between 1-3 times previously over hurdles
14/19 – Irish bred
13/19 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
13/19 – Priced 17/2 or shorter in the betting
12/19 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
11/19 – Ran at Chepstow previously
11/19 – Won over 3m previously
10/19 – Carried between 11-2 and 11-11 in weight
8/19 – Officially Rated 120 or less
5/19 – Winning favourites
4/19 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
2/19 – Won their last race
Note: The 2011 running was a dead-heat

SUREWIN VERDICT: AL DANCER
SUREWIN DANGER: TAKE YOUR TIME

 

2.50 – Coral Welsh Grand National (A Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f110y ITV4

19/19 – Had won between 1-5 chase races before
19/19 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
19/19 – Had won over at least 3m before (fences)
17/19 – Aged 9 or younger
17/19 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
15/19 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
14/19 – Aged 8 or younger
13/19 – Carried 10-8 or less in weight
13/19 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
12/19 – Irish bred
12/19 – Had won just 2 or 3 times before over fences
10/19 – Had won over fences at Chepstow before
8/19 – Won last time out
7/19 – Unplaced favourites
6/19 – French bred
6/19 – Had run in the Welsh National before
6/19 – Ran at Chepstow last time out
4/19 – Winning favourites
2/19 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/19 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 9/1

 

SUREWIN VERDICT: The Evan Williams-trained SECRET REPRIEVE will be looking to become the first back-to-back Welsh National winner since Bonanza Boy (1988/89) and even though he’s not been out since winning this race last season, he’s sure to be well tuned up. He’s gone well fresh in the past and is also only 6lbs higher than when winning this in 2021. He’s 3-from-3 at the track and with just six career runs over fences and just 7 years-old is a horse that can be expected to have more improvement in the locker. Trainer Paul Nicholls actually rode the winner of this race back in 1987 and he’s since trained winners in 2004 and 2005 - he’s got a leading chance again this year too with Highland Hunter. This 8 year-old stayed on well to win the London National at Sandown last time out on his return run and is up just 4lbs for that. He could get in here with a much lighter racing weight too (if Native River runs), so after winning with 11-12 last time will have a much lighter weight on his back this time which will help over the extreme trip. The niggle would be that he actually fell in this race 12 months ago and he seemed to have quite a hard race the last day, so it remains to be seen if that’s left its mark. The Big Dog, will be a leading player from Ireland too having won the Irish Grand National Trial at Punchestown back in February, but has returned this season with two average efforts so needs to bounce back. If running the 2016 winner of the race - Native River - adds a bit of class to the race and he returned recently with a fair run at Aintree (2nd) to be considered. We could also have the 2019 winner - POTTERS CORNER (e/w) - in the race. This 11 year-old bounce back to form last time out at Cheltenham in the Cross Country race to be a close second and being rated a massive 13lbs lower than when winning this a few seasons ago means he heads here very well-handicapped indeed. Of the rest, Becher Chase runner-up HILL SIXTEEN (e/w) can go well off a light weight for the Sandy Thomson yard that seem to have sparked some life into this horse and at the age of 8 has time on his side. Another Irish challenger to have on your radar is the Jessie Harrington-trained Discordantly, who will be better for a return run sixth at Navan, while 2018 winner of the race - Elegant Escape - course winner Ramses De Teillee, Deise Aba, who was a close second to Highland Hunter last time, and last season’s Scottish National hero - Mighty Thunder - are others to respect.

 

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