In last week’s column I went for Lyndon B at a nice price at Sandown and I’m 100% sure he was the best horse in the race, despite only finishing 4th. The first thing to note, was that there were two non runners before the race and they were both front runners, which changed the complexion of the race.

In the race itself, Lyndon B was going well on the inside but strangely his young jockey, perhaps encouraged by a gap opening on the rail, went for home a full two and a half furlongs out. Not many hold up performers survive going that early and he was a sitting duck inside the final furlong, getting swallowed up by three (more patiently) rivals but still not getting beaten far at all. I’m convinced he’d have won if given a similar ride to those that finished ahead of him and he’ll be winning soon on fast ground when a decent early pace looks likely.

This Week’s Race

Friday’s Goodwood card plays host to two of my favourite races of the week, the Goodwood Handicap which is run over an extended 2m4f and also the Golden Mile, which is the feature handicap of the day.

I’ll likely be having a bet in both but it’s the latter, the 3pm at Goodwood, that I’ll be concentrating on here.

Because it’s a massive race where plenty are in with chances, I’m going to go through the entire field, one by one, in early market order.

Goodwood Pointers

The mile course offers some great betting opportunities as there are strong, pre established draw and pace biases.

In terms of the draw, it’s a big advantage to be drawn low - in big fields you’re about twice as likely to finish in the places if you are drawn low compared to high, and about four times as likely to win if drawn low (away from soft ground).

Generally speaking it’s lower the better as far as the draw is concerned and win and place performance starts to really drop off from about stall 12 upwards. Higher draws can be overcome, usually by somehow managing to get a decent position in the first furlong (plenty of luck will be involved in that, as well as some excellent riding), but once you get to stall 15 it starts to become almost impossible to win.

Pace can be equally important here, with front runners and prominent racers often enjoying an advantage as it can be difficult to make up ground at Goodwood, especially with traffic problems almost certain in big fields. A ‘favourable’ low draw can quickly become a nightmare though in a bunched field when the horse is trapped on the rail with nowhere to go.

In this year’s race, pace will be as important as ever because, quite frankly, there is almost none of it! That means not only are those that sit close to the pace likely to be at a bigger advantage than usual, it’s also likely that the field will be extremely tightly grouped and finding a clear route through will be almost impossible for many of the field.

On to the runners…

Blue For You

David O’Meara tends to fire many arrows at this race each year, with good success having won two of the last four renewals.

Blue For You has run in the past two renewals of this race. He was an unlucky in running 2nd two years ago off a 5lbs lower mark on fast ground from stall 1 and last year he was a well enough beaten 10th on soft ground off a 4lb higher mark from stall 11.

There is nothing wrong with his handicap mark of 98, he won a decent race last year off a 1lb higher mark and he was a comfortable winner of a York handicap last time out off a 3lb lower mark, with the runner up landing the International Stakes next time out.

His last three wins have all come at York, and he does go very well there, but he’s a player based on his 2nd in this two years ago and his chance basically comes down to luck in running. He’s going to be settled in mid division and he’s drawn in stall 5 so he’s going to be surrounded by runners and it’s almost certain he’ll hit major traffic problems, like he did when running well in this previously.

Even if he does get something resembling a clear run, there is a question mark about this setting up for a closer given the likely steady early gallop.

He’s clearly a major player on form but he probably requires too much luck in running to be considered a betting proposition, but it would be no surprise to see him run well if things go his way.

Holloway Boy

Considering the ground went against Holloway Boy last time out at Sandown, he ran a cracker to finish 2nd to what looked a group horse in a handicap. He was ridden a bit closer to the pace that day too which showed a new string to his bow but from stall 13 here his jockey might not get much choice about where he slots in

His unlucky in running Royal Hunt Cup 5th reads well in relation to this race and he’s going to get his ground here but it remains a nagging doubt that his only career win came as a 2yo in the Chesham Stakes at the Royal Meeting.

He’s more lightly raced than many in this and definitely looks well handicapped but early position and luck in running remain big worries. He’s probably going to end up further back than ideal or wider than ideal, or possibly both. If he’s sat one off the rail in about third or fourth after a furlong he’ll have a massive chance, if he’s three wide and has 15 runners in front of him at that stage then he probably has no chance.

Native Warrior

The only 3yo in the field is the only reserve in the field, and he needs an early non runner to get a run. He won his side of the Britannia last time out (3rd overall) so clearly brings a very high level of form into this.

If he does get a run, which is unlikely, he is going to find it difficult to win with a hold up ride from stall 14 which would make him difficult to back.

New Image

Officially the best handicapped runner in the field, 3lbs well in having finished a good 2nd last time out in the International Stakes. He’s yet to run over a mile but he’s comfortable on fast ground and still looks well handicapped based on his 7f form, slightly unlucky to have been beaten in any of his seven starts this season for a variety of reasons.

He’d have been a major contender with a good draw, for all he’d need luck in running, but stall 17 gives him an almost impossible task here given his run style.

Perotto

In good form this season with two 3rd places and he’s closely matched with Holloway Boy based on both of those efforts, but he’s slightly better drawn here in stall 10.

He has fewer questions to answer than some of these as he’s very much proven at the course. He finished 1st and 2nd in two runs here as a 2yo, won a very competitive early season handicap over 7f here as a 3yo before acquitting himself well in other races here at a higher level than this. Then last season he was 7th from stall 17 in unsuitably soft ground in this race last year, off a 5lb lower mark.

He’s clearly very much suited by this course and there is no doubt he’s handicapped to go close given he finished 3rd in the Royal Hunt Cup this season off a 1lb lower mark before finishing a close 3rd on soft ground at Sandown last time out off this mark.

The big question mark here is the run of the race. Perotto can race handily, he’s done it several times before and he tracked the early leader last time out when running well. Stall 10 is a bit wider than ideal but more than half of those drawn on his inside tend to be dropped out so he could quite easily track the early pace here, sitting about two wide, if Tom Marquand elects to do so. It wasn’t Marquand being positive on the horse last time out, it was Ryan Moore, and what Marquand does in the first furlong here will determine if Perotto has an excellent chance of winning or only a small chance of winning.

Rebel Territory

A course winner who has won over further but his improved efforts have come over 7f. He’s best suited by plenty of cut in the ground and hasn’t been seen for 447 days. On top of that he’s drawn in stall 19. Progressive when last seen but absurdly short in the betting all things considered and unlikely to play a part in the finish. He’ll surely drift plenty.

Classic

I’m a big fan of this horse and I think he’s handicapped to win a decent pot, for all this might be too tough an ask. He’s well drawn in stall 3 and his poor effort last time out is easily forgiven (ground very testing, poorly positioned, on the wrong part of the track).

His efforts on good to firm ground have been underwhelming though, often hanging under pressure and finding far less than expected. Ideally he seems to want non extremes of ground (somewhere between good and good to soft) to be seen to best effect and unless the thunderstorms really hit, he’s unlikely to get that. On top of that he tends to be dropped out near least which will almost certainly leave him poorly positioned the way this is likely to develop.

With a bit of luck things will conspire against him here and he’ll go off too big a price next time if getting his preferred conditions.

Silent Film

Not the easiest to win with but very much outran his odds last time out and also finished a good 3rd at Epsom earlier this season in a race that has worked out well. Stall 2 is a big positive but the booking of Jamie Spencer implies the horse will be held up (he’s tactically versatile but was held up last time).

He doesn’t seem well enough handicapped to win a race of this nature and his best efforts have come on good or softer so very fast ground probably won’t suit.

Urban Sprawl

Pretty much the only runner here guaranteed to be 100% suited by conditions. He’s the only front runner in the field and he’s been given the absolute perfect draw in stall 1, meaning he’ll get the easiest possible route to the rail and the lead with very little in there to take him on. Billy Loughnane will be able to stack the field up as he sees fit and kick for home when he chooses, giving him a huge tactical advantage.

He was in good form in cheekpieces over the winter, finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th in eight consecutive starts, demonstrating a level of consistency that hadn’t been seen pre headgear. A few of those races worked out well suggesting he should definitely be winning off this sort of mark.

He won a decent handicap (7f) on fast ground here last season in good fashion and finished 3rd in the Britannia Handicap off a 2lb higher mark, with a repeat of that effort likely more than enough to win this.

If he was coming into this straight from his all weather campaign he’d be a great each way bet with pretty much everything in his favour but there are big question marks about his well being. He picked up an injury earlier this year and has only been seen once all season, when beaten almost 20 lengths in a much weaker race than this at Newmarket. Charlie Johnston has said that they needed to get a run into him before this and he’ll come on massively for it but he’ll need to be somewhere near his best to land this and that effort came just three weeks ago which has to be a worry.

Orbaan

The 2002 winner of this race returns off the same mark as he won from two years ago and he’s fared well with the draw again, landing stall 4.

He has a strong record here, with form figures of 6129 in handicaps. That might not seem an amazing record but three of those runs came in this race. The 6th was when unlucky in running in this back in 2021 off a 14lb higher mark and the 9th came on ground that was too soft last year, from stall 19, when held up in a slowly run race, so that was still a remarkable effort and it came off a 9lb higher mark. He won easily off this exact mark two years ago and later that season he was an unlucky in running runner up over 7f off a 12lb higher mark, beaten just a short head.

I liked him for this race two years ago but I had reservations about luck in running. Surely he’d get trapped on the rail from stall 2 and would finish full of running? In the end things opened up perfectly for him and he nipped though the gap and pulled clear. The same worries apply this year and it’s impossible to tell if he’ll get the breaks. If he does, he could be almost impossible to beat having bounced back to form two runs ago winning the Carlisle Bell in good fashion.

Two Tempting

This runner has been on a roll this season, winning four times from six starts, and he’s been a credit to connections. He wasn’t at his best last time out but he was well beaten on his only other run on soft ground so conditions were probably too testing. The flip side of that is that all his good efforts this season have been on good to soft and his form on good to firm leaves something to be desired.

He does tend to race handily and is well drawn in stall 7 so he should be one of the horses at the biggest tactical advantage in this and he’d have a massive chance of filling one of the places if translating his good to soft form to likely faster ground here. Backing him comes with risks but there are surely worse place only plays in the race, especially for those that don’t mind trading out in running as he’ll likely be well placed and going fine turning for home.

Benacre

A stablemate of Urban Sprawl, Benacre is a possible pace angle although connections won’t want their runners cutting each other’s throats so it’s more than likely he’ll just track his stable mate from a good draw in stall 6.

He’s at his best on fast ground and is very much proven here having won over the 7f course as a 2yo, also finishing a decent 3rd in a 12f soft ground handicap which would have been far too much of a stamina test.

He’s been inconsistent this season and even on his best efforts he has a bit to find, but his close 3rd off a 5lb higher mark in the Lincoln Trial in March does catch the eye as a decent bit of form. He should be seen to very good effect here so if on a going day is fancied to run very well but he’s without a win since his 2yo days so he looks much more likely to fill the places than get his head in front.

It’s worth noting he has an entry at Wolverhampton on Thursday night but that was made before connections knew he’d make the cut for this (he was the last one in) so he’ll presumably be pulled out of that engagement in favour of this.

Darkness

Won two starts ago, was 5th in the Bunbury Cup last time out and is 3lbs lower than when 4th in this last time out so there is plenty to like, especially as the ground was probably softer than ideal last year.

His very best efforts in recent years, including his only two wins in the UK, have come at Newmarket though and Hector Crouch will face a bit of a dilemma. He was well placed in a slowly run race in this last year (sound familiar?) but he tends to not quite get home when ridden positively over a mile. His two wins for O’Meara have come when ridden patiently over 7f.

So from stall 8, Crouch can either make the most of that draw and go forward, knowing that he’ll likely fade close home (even off a slow gallop) or he can hold the horse up for a finishing effort, knowing that there is a good chance he gets no sort of run. If it’s the former, then he has an excellent chance of placing again, if it’s the latter then how well he runs is pure luck. Either way he’s an unlikely winner.

Dutch Decoy

Well enough placed when 3rd in this on unsuitably soft ground last year off a 3lb higher mark and he’s well handicapped now, even accounting for the fact his current handicap mark, which he can’t run off, is 6lbs lower than last year.

Better ground this year will suit but he’s not quite in as good form and crucially, he’s drawn in stall 20 which should end any interest in backing this runner. His turn is nearing though and a truly run race at Newmarket (or any other track with a stiff finish) should see him take advantage of a falling mark.

Bopedro

Hasn’t been seen to best effect this season but he’s become well handicapped as a result, although he’ll be another 2lbs lower in the future so isn’t particularly well in here.

He’s going to win a big race soon but a tactical race around a bend isn’t ideal for him, nor is stall 12. He was 12th in this last year from a similar draw from a 4lb higher mark and although poorly placed in that race, it’s likely to be same story again here. There will be other days to catch him and he’d make plenty of appeal in the Cambridgeshire (3rd last year off an 8lb higher mark) if and when he turns up there.

Toimy Son

His best form has been at 6f/7f on softer ground and he’s drawn in the widest stall here so in all likelihood he has next to no chance in this.

Pisanello

A decent runner in the right races but all his wins have come on softish ground, in lower grades, off lower marks. The handicapper has looked to have him on his most recent starts and a tactical class 2 handicap on fast ground is very unlikely to bring about a career best, which is required here.

Rhoscolyn

Course specialist with four wins, a 2nd and two 3rds to his name from 9 starts. He stays an easy mile like this but he’s almost certainly better over 7f and he prefers plenty of cut in the ground.

His Epsom win earlier this season means he’s now 4lbs higher than his highest winning mark and although he was 2nd in this race three years ago off 3lbs higher, that effort came on good to soft ground. If the thunderstorms are much worse than expected he could run well but on the likely fast ground he’s probably looking at finishing around 7th or 8th at best, even with a clear run.

Talis Evolvere

He was a big improver over the winter on the all weather and he’s so far translated that improvement to turf pretty well, even if he’s been held in some good races. This looks tougher and it’s worth noting his best turf effort this year came on good to soft and his worst came on good to firm so it’s likely he wants some rain.

Even on his recent best, he’s likely to find this a bit hot off this mark and stall 15 doesn’t help either.

Mirsky

It’s highly likely Mirsky has a race in him off this sort of mark but he’s another whose best run this season came on slightly softer ground. He’s drawn in stall 18 and doesn’t look up to this grade anyway but he could land a slightly easier handicap than this in the Autumn.

Revich

Yet to fire in three runs this season but was 3rd from a poor draw in this two years ago off a 3lb higher mark so merits some consideration. The draw gods have been unkind again this year though and during his long career, he’s usually shown signs of improvement before completely bouncing back to form so at best he’s one to monitor on his future runs and to back after finishing mid division or so. Difficult to fancy here though.

Summary

This could be a race for in running punters as it would be a big surprise if the winner isn’t in the first four or five once race positions settle down after the first furlong. Anything trapped three wide is likely to be in trouble and anything that is near the back is going to be in big trouble too.

This is easily a race that you could run ten times and get ten different results, but it’s likely the majority of those runnings would be won by one of Blue For You, Holloway Boy, Perotto, Urban Sprawl and Orbaan, with Benacre, Two Tempting and Darkness amongst those you’d expect to at least place a few times.

Luck in running is going to be absolutely crucial and the one that doesn’t need it is Urban Sprawl. It’s difficult to be remotely confident about his current well being and the late market will likely be an excellent guide of that but he’s clearly going to get a very easy lead and if fairly close to his best he should go close. At a top price of 16/1 at the time of writing and a more generally available 14/1 he has to merit come consideration and the best way to deal with him should be to have a small, win only saver. If he’s warm in the market just before the off it might be worth dipping in again.

Blue For You, Holloway Boy and Orbaan make a fair amount of appeal. Holloway Boy seems to be similarly well handicapped to Perotto but the latter is proven at this unique course and a bit more tactically versatile, not to mention slightly better drawn. Assuming Perotto is ridden more prominently than Holloway Boy, Perotto should be finishing ahead of his old rival.

Of stablemates Blue For You and Orbaan, it’s impossible to predict which, if either, will get luck in running. Blue For You is plenty short enough now at a top price of 11/2 and given Orbaan’s course form, it’s the bigger priced stable mate who makes more appeal all else being equal. It’s possible Orbaan will only place but it’s probably more likely he either gets enough of a clear run to win or gets no run at all and finishes outside of the places. So with that in mind Orbaan also looks worth a small, win only saver with 16/1 available in one place and 14s available with a few bookies at the time or writing.

Looking at this race, I want a solid each way and despite the tactical advantage, Urban Sprawl can’t be considered that because he was well beaten on his only run since Christmas.

So much depends on what Tom Marquand decides to do when the stalls open but with Urban Sprawl likely to lead on the inside, with fellow low drawn prominent racers Benacre and Two Tempting in tow, the best position for Perotto should be latching on to that trio and he should face no interference from his inside if doing so.

PEROTTO is available at 8/1 at the time of writing with 6 places available, with slightly worse prices on offer with more places or slightly better prices for worse place terms. If Marquand goes forward on Perotto and is no worse than 4th or 5th after a furlong then his in running price should be more like 4/1 and he’d look an almost certainty to place at least. We can’t tell if that’s the plan until the race starts but he still looks a fair price pre race for an each way bet and there is always the option to top up on the win part in running.

Sam Darby - Winning Post Profits

Click here to join Winning Post Profits