Last week’s preview proved fruitful, with Bolster winning pretty well at 5/1. Statistically, it’s not that easy to make all over 10f at Epsom but he controlled the tempo and kicked clear whilst there were multiple hard luck stories in behind.

Perhaps the biggest hard luck story was Derry Lad, who I gave a very strong mention to. He probably should have won and remains of massive interest in handicaps from 10f to 12f.

I feared even good to soft ground would be too soft for runner up Paradias but he ran an excellent race as well, avoiding the trouble that others found, and he’s potentially spoiled his price for next time out on faster ground. He’s very much a 10f specialist and should be backed on good or faster ground if not too short in the betting.

This Week’s Race

It’s not exactly a vintage Friday but it’s competitive enough. There is a horse running in the 6.05pm at Goodwood that was extremely high up on my horses to follow list last season and I still think he’s very well handicapped. However this is a race for apprentice jockeys and I’m a bit concerned about the jockey booking.

Goodwood Pointers

This is a course that has some strong draw biases and some fairly considerable pace biases at some distances.

The race in question though is run over 9f, a relatively rarely used distance here. On the pace front, it seems pretty fair with no clear bias. The draw data suggests middle is best, with nothing between high and low, but it’s difficult to draw strong conclusions from a limited data set.

This Runner Epitomises ‘Hot Form’

I’ve mentioned this many times before, and anyone who has joined my private service will have received a free ebook which explains it in more detail, but pretty much all my bets are based around ‘hot form’.

In short, hot form is races that throw up future winners. So if the 1st, 3rd and 4th have all come out of a race and won next time out, it stands to reason that the 2nd should be capable of similar future performances.

Alan King’s Outgun has been a frustrating horse to follow. He’s yet to win in ten racecourse outings, but he’s been extremely consistent, with form figures of 453342423 on the flat. It’s possible he’s a bit of a ‘dog’ and doesn’t like to get his head in front (there are plenty of horses that seem to love finishing 2nd or 3rd) but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt until something other than very well handicapped horses beat him.

He first went into my tracker after a decent seasonal debut last year where he finished 3rd over a mile at Newbury. It wasn’t an amazing race but the winner got within a neck of winning next time out, the runner up and the 4th subsequently finished 3rd and 2nd and the 5th, 6th, 8th, 10th and 11th all won shortly after. That was pretty good form, especially for his first run of the season and just his 4th career start.

Next time out, back over Newbury’s mile, he was given a howler of a ride, seriously catching the eye and shaping much, much better than 4th of 16 implies. The winner would win six of his next seven starts, including three listed races, the runner up won a couple of starts later, the 3rd won two of his next three, the 5th won next time out, the 6th won two of his next three and even the 7th managed to finish runner up on his next two starts. That was an extremely strong race and Outgun looked a very unlucky loser.

Given how well Outgun had traveled through that race, never getting a run, it was a surprise that connections elected to go up to 10f next time out. Around a furlong out in that race he looked to be coming with a possible winning run but he was almost put through the rail by the winner. He finished 2nd, beaten an exaggerated winning distance, and the winner was well handicapped as he was a very unlucky 3rd next time whilst the 4th in this race won his next two starts.

It’s difficult to say if that race proved Outgun’s stamina for 10f or not, as he was so badly hampered, but connections decided to test his stamina even further next time over 11f at Kempton. It looked like he was ridden to get the trip and although he passed (tired) horses in the final furlong, he didn’t really convince with his finishing effort. In finishing 4th, beaten 5 lengths, he still finished on the heels of some well handicapped horses. The winner hasn’t been seen again but the runner up won next time out, the 3rd won two of his next three, the 5th won two of his next three, the 6th placed on his next two starts and the 7th was another who won two of his next three. Another unbelievably strong race that Outgun ran in.

Surely he couldn’t continue to bump into well handicapped horses…?

He was dropped back 1.5f in trip next time at Wolverhampton, which seemed a smart move, and he hit the front in the final furlong, looking the winner, only to be worn down late on by Goldsmith. That winner would, of course, go on to win again next time out and has subsequently won off an even higher mark. The 4th won his next two starts and the 5th soon won twice as well. The 9th would also win on his next course and distance start.

That was five good runs in five very hot races in a row, but he wasn’t done yet. On his most recent start, which came around five weeks later (around four months ago), he was a little weak in the finish when 3rd over 10f at Chelmsford, having raced quite keenly in the first half of the contest. A disappointing effort on the face of it but low and behold, the winner would finish 2nd and 1st on his next two starts, soon rating 9lbs higher. Meanwhile the runner up also finished 2nd and then 1st, rating 8lbs higher after those efforts.

I’ve seen horses run in two or three consecutive hot races before winning and they often make the best bets as they are proven to be well handicapped (despite not winning) more than once, but I’ve never seen a horse run in this many. In his last five runs, only one horse has finished ahead of him and not won on a subsequent start, and that horse was a very unlucky 3rd that should have won.

Amazingly, during this run, Outgun’s mark has barely changed. He made his handicap debut off 69 and he’s rated just 71 now.

This is his first run since February but he ran very well first time out last season and Alan King normally has them ready, he’s had runners finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd in competitive races from his last six flat handicappers to return from 60+ day breaks.

It remains to be seen if Outgun can actually put it all together and get his head in front but I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt. It’s not like he continues to hit the front and then finish 2nd, pretty much the only time he’s got to the front was at Wolverhampton, behind Goldsmith, and he seemed to battle on very well that day. The drop back to 9f here might even be perfect with helping him find that bit extra in the closing stages.

My main worry is the jockey booking. There are very few ‘great’ jockey bookings when it comes to apprentice races and Alan King has served up a slight surprise here in booking Oscar Palmer, a jockey I must confess that I hadn’t actually heard of.

Initially I saw a record of one win from 22 flat starts over the past 5 years and I was very concerned. I’ve since realised he’s actually a conditional jockey over the jumps that Alan King, amongst others, has been using over the winter. He’s less experienced than a lot of these but his place strike rate is up there with the best in this one and he does claim 5lbs against many of them. I’ve watched some of his races back and he looked very weak in the saddle last summer, meaning anyone expecting a power packed ride is going to be disappointed, but he has looked more polished in some of his more recent jumps races.

I’d swap the jockey for most others in the field (the likes of Adam Farragher has won 111 more races!) but perhaps slightly lighter handling is what this horse needs to get his head in front?

Six In Form Rivals

In racecard order, the sextet who ran well last time out are Lunario, Dream Pirate, Pink Lily, Al Baahy, Night Breeze and Fascinating Lips.

Lunario has been running consistently well recently, finishing in the first two on his last four starts, winning one of those races. His win came three starts ago, beating a runner up who has since scored from a 1lb higher mark, admittedly four runs later. The 5th has also won since but over a different trip.

He was 2nd next time over an extended mile at Nottingham in a race that hasn’t worked out at all and then was 2nd again last time out, off a 2lb lower mark than this, beaten just a nose at Bath. The front two pulled clear that day so a 2lb rise is perhaps lenient but the winner has done nothing for that form since.

He’s in great form but he’s going back up in grade off a 7lb higher mark than he last won off so he’s definitely vulnerable for win purposes.

Night Breeze’s form ties in with Lunario. He was 3.75 lengths behind Lunario last time out, staying on well to produce a career best. The extra furlong may help here and he’s 2lbs better off but he still looks fairly unlikely to turn the tables on his old rival, even accounting for the fact he’s open to more improvement after just six career starts.

Dream Pirate is likely to find the ground a bit lively here, having shown his best form on softer ground, and he’s been shaping as though he’d appreciate a drop to 7f so the step up to 9f here looks a questionable decision.

Pink Lily is the sole last time out winner in the line up and she boasts a pretty good strike rate against some fairly win shy rivals. She’s not short of speed but all four of her wins have come at 10f and both her turf wins have come at Bath, which is perhaps a slight concern running at a different venue, over a different trip. She didn’t really fire on her only previous visit here and all her wins have come in a lesser grade too. Those are all big worries so she should find this a tough ask and she might be overestimated in the betting because she comes into this off the back of a win. The main positive, other than she’s running well, is that she’s partnered by her usual jockey.

Al Baahy is another who has trip worries here. He’s finished runner up over an extended mile at Wolverhampton but on the whole his best form is over 7f so this 9f trip is likely to find him out in a truly run race. He’s lurking on a decent mark now but this may well be the wrong race for him.

Fascinating Lips was beaten just a neck last time out but now drops 2.5f here. He’s 8lbs below the mark he got both his flat wins from and has run well in defeat twice at this course but both those good efforts here were over a couple of furlongs further and he’s going to find this a sharp enough test unless they go a crazy gallop.

Others Need To Improve

Raqraaq won on his penultimate start in November and may have needed his first run for six months when making his reappearance in April. That was a truly terrible run though (beaten 82 lengths) and considering he was well backed that day, it’s unlikely he was lacking for fitness. He’s been below par for most of his turf career (barring one good run at Windsor a year ago) and he looks a risky betting proposition.

Celebrating Ethel has one career win and that came over this precise 9f distance, last season at Leopardstown when trained by Andrew Kinirons. Now with Tony Carroll, she’s yet to fire in two starts for her new trainer, beaten 6 lengths and 8 lengths respectively. It’s likely she’s being lined up for something but she doesn’t look ready to strike just yet.

Kitaro Kich has generally been regressive in handicaps, after a promising start, and he’s run very poorly on his last two starts. He had a break between those starts and has since been given a wind op and had a tongue tie added so it’s clear connections believe there was a problem with his breathing. There is a clear reason he could bounce back here and he’s well enough handicapped if doing so but he’s risky, especially with the yard not going particularly well at the minute.

Previous course and distance winner, Lawn Ranger, completes the field. He’s won on fast ground in the past but that was an uncompetitive four runner race and most of his best form has come when the ground has been a bit softer. He’s 1lb higher than his most recent win last summer but that was a comfortable victory so he would have won that off this mark, but that came over 10f on good to soft ground. It’s been a couple of years since he last ran well on good ground and he was recently pulled out on good to firm ground so he’s not a guaranteed runner here and if he does run he might well fail to run to his best. He’s run some really good races here at Goodwood and would have made plenty of appeal on good to soft (or worse) ground but it looks like underfoot conditions will very much be against him.

Summary

This looks a poor race and unlike most of Outgun’s handicap starts, this doesn’t look like a contest that will be throwing up lots of future winners.

In that respect it should be a no excuses race for OUTGUN. Maybe he’ll need the run but the evidence suggests he’ll be fit enough. It’s possible he won’t like Goodwood but he’s handled every other course he’s tried so far. The main worry is what sort of ride he’s going to be given in this. If he’s given a half competent ride we should finally find out if he goes through with his effort or not.

This is a horse that’s often well found in the market, he’s been sent off shorter than 7/2 on his last four flat starts and despite the lack of recent run, I very much expect him to be the early favourite in the betting. If I’m backing a jockey that has only ever won three races I want a half decent price to make up for that fact.

Lunario is probably the main danger and likely 2nd favourite with Pink Lily perhaps next in the betting. There really doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of competition here so despite there being 11 runners, I can’t really see Outgun being available at more than 3/1. I certainly wouldn’t want to backing him at a shorter price than 5/2 so if he’s 9/4 or less this is definitely a no bet race and if he’s around the 5/2 or 11/4 market I certainly won’t be getting carried away.

Occasionally, the odds compilers are overly generous and if he was more like 9/2 or 5/1 I’d be very happy. I won’t be expecting that sort of price though.

I’m confident he’ll run well if getting the breaks but there are some big risks in terms of getting his head in front so he definitely needs to be the right price to get involved.

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