A lot of work went into getting the Golden Mile at Goodwood completely wrong last week!

Both the draw and pace bias went out of the window with the two highest draws finishing 1st and 2nd from off the pace. I gave little to no chance to the winner, and it’s worth noting that because of all the non runners, he effectively broke from stall 16 rather than 21, but I must admit I couldn’t have him from stall 16 either. Other than running some decent races at Goodwood previously, I just don’t think he had the credentials to win a race of that nature but he clearly improved for the step up in trip and he certainly didn’t go unbacked.

As for my selection, Perotto, I do think he would have finished 4th or 5th had he not been completely wiped out by the winner cutting across him 1.5f from home, but we’ll never know for sure.

As usual in the race, there were quite a few eyecatchers in behind who are likely to go close next time. A few of them are obvious but one was less so, and I think that horse (which I’m saving for members), could go in at a big price next time.

This Week’s Race

There is only one race that I’m interested in on Friday which makes selecting the ‘race of the day’ a very easy choice. This week I’ll be going through the 7.10pm at Newmarket which is a class 4 handicap that will be run over 6f.

William Hill have been nice enough to price the race up very early, and whilst their prices are subject to plenty of change, it does help to have some guide prices to highlight any early value.

Newmarket Pointers

The Newmarket July course tends to favour early speed with front runners often very well served by this course, especially over shorter distances.

There doesn’t tend to be much of a draw bias and it can change based on the position of the starting stalls, which varies from day to day and meeting to meeting. In very big fields, higher numbers can be favoured.

Recent Course And Distance Race Could Be Key

The early favourite for this race is Dashing Dick and that’s no real surprise. William Stone’s 6yo has maintained a pretty steady level of form throughout his career but seemed to put in what was pretty much a career best three weeks ago when winning here in similar conditions in impressive fashion by 3.5 lengths.

He’s gone up 7lbs for that win and now races off a career high mark of 80. A 6yo that has traditionally struggled when rated in the high 70s would generally make little appeal to follow that effort up but the form of that win couldn’t have worked out much better. The runner up won by 2 lengths next time out, the 3rd was beaten just a nose next time out and the 4th was also 2nd next time, with the 6th winning since as well.

To beat several well handicapped runners in that fashion means the 7lb rise could be a little lenient and the handicapper agrees as he’s upped the horse another 1lb since, although that new mark hasn’t kicked in just yet.

What’s perhaps most interesting about that race last time out though is that the 5th, Equiano Springs, also runs here. And whilst Dashing Dick now runs off a mark he’s traditionally struggled from, Equiano Springs is running off one of his lowest marks in 5 years.

Equiano Springs is a real Newmarket specialist. Six of his last seven wins have come over Newmarket’s 6f, either on the July Course or Rowley Mile course, and he has an impressive record here on fastish ground. His form figures over 6f at Newmarket on good or better ground read 111111635.

Those numbers do suggest his ability here has tailed off but they don’t tell the whole story. He was far too keen and raced on the pace when 6th in this race last year so that’s easily forgiven and then he was actually unlucky in running when a close 3rd on his next run here. He was 3lbs higher than he is now for that run so must have an excellent chance based on that effort.

Then there is his recent 5th here. Everything seemed in place for a big run but he was very weak in the market just before the off which didn’t seem right. And then there’s the ride…

I can’t make any accusations in a public domain about whether or not something fishy was going on but Tom Queally did seem to find trouble where there wasn’t any and the horse wasn’t asked for maximum effort until around half a furlong from home. It’s clear the horse was far better than the bare result and probably value for finishing 3rd.

Equiano Springs was beaten 5.5 lengths in the end but it would have been more like 3.5 lengths with something resembling a clear run and he’s now 8lbs better off which gives him decent claims of reversing that form.

Another reason he could close that gap, or even reverse the form, is pace. That last race didn’t set up for closers at all, which is the case with many sprints here. This time around there are five front runners in the field which means they should go a really good pace and there should be no easy leads. That will make the lives of the hold up performers much easier.

Odds Compilers Struggling To Separate Many

After the favourite, Dashing Dick, you can throw a blanket over the next six or seven in the betting, which is the bulk of the field.

At the time of writing, the second favourite is Asimov. He’s one of a few 3yos in the field and he comes into this in decent enough form, having won a maiden on his penultimate outing before finishing runner up in a handicap last time out.

James Fanshawe’s runner is quite interesting because he was largely campaigned as a miler before being dropped to sprinting on his last two starts. He’s clearly relished the drop in trip and remains unexposed, therefore possibly still ahead of the handicapper, at this sort of trip. It does have to be said though, that he was well placed when 2nd last time out and the winner won cosily enough. He’s now up in class and 3lbs higher which could leave him vulnerable for win purposes.

Antiphon and Kodiac Thriller are next. The former is one that the handicapper knows inside and out, as this 5yo has had 42 career starts already. He’s been just about held since winning off a 5lb lower mark earlier this season but is capable of this mark as his previous two wins came from this precise rating. Antiphon does tend to reserve his very best for Windsor and he could probably do with an easier lead if he’s going to win this so he’ll make more appeal in one of his next few outings.

As for Kodiac Thriller, Charles Hills’ newly gelded 3yo has much more room for improvement after just 9 starts but he definitely needs to step up on what he’s shown to date. He’s another that is likely to want to force the pace and he definitely does need to improve to figure, with connections surely crossing their fingers that the gelding op does the trick.

Maximum Impact and Spring Bloom are just behind those runners in the betting pecking order. Maximum Impact presumably found the ground too soft last time and would have a chance in this off his previous course and distance 3rd on faster ground. He didn’t quite make it home that day but the winner and 4th have both won since, franking that form. First time cheekpieces here raise bigger question marks and he doesn’t especially appeal with the headgear on. Spring Bloom goes well here but hasn’t been at his best this season and seems better at the minimum trip. The latter is likely to be ridden aggressively whilst Maximum Impact will probably be prominent.

The only other runner at a single figure price early on is Mart, who has seemingly attracted some market support early on. After finishing runner up four times in a row in the Spring, things seemed to click with him winning two on the bounce. He hasn’t been in the same form in two runs since but they came over quick 5f trips where he didn’t have the pace to get involved. He’s clearly expected to relish the step back up to 6f and his last two wins worked out quite well so it’s no surprise he’s attracted support as it wouldn’t be a shock if he ran well, for all he has a few questions to answer.

Remaining Pair Could Struggle

Of the remaining pair, The Thames Boatman is by far the more well fancied. He certainly isn’t the most consistent and all his wins have come on artificial surfaces but he does act on turf, for all he hasn’t fired in two runs on grass this year. It’s difficult to fancy him given his overall profile but it’s not impossible he could go well.

The complete outsider of the field is Roman Emperor. He was running okay in some less competitive all weather handicaps early this year but his form has tailed off and after a three month break he’s shown very little in two turf starts, beaten 12 lengths and 10 lengths respectively.

Summary

Against different opposition I’d perhaps be willing to chance Dashing Dick despite the worry of the career high mark because he was very impressive in a strong race last time out, albeit getting the run of the race.

However, this time around he faces much more competition for the lead and is far from certain to confirm form with EQUIANO SPRINGS. I tipped and backed this horse last time out and was left very frustrated with what went down, it being clear the horse could have gone much closer.

The 8lb swing in the weights isn’t enough to reverse the bare form but with a better ride here and a likely stronger pace to chase he could be seen to best effect. He proved, when going close at Doncaster on softer than ideal ground on his penultimate start, that he still has a race in him at the age of 10 off this sort of mark and he has an excellent chance of making it win number 7 here, on his (hopefully lucky) 13th attempt. The early 13/2 seems very fair and if that’s replicated elsewhere I’ll be having a decent enough each way wager on the horse and I’ll be hoping he’s a bit stronger in the betting just before the off this time.

Dashing Dick is probably the main danger if in the same form as last time whilst it’s almost impossible to completely rule out much of the field. Maximum Impact would have made some appeal if the risky first time headgear wasn’t added. Antiphon and Asimov have form chances but their chances could be compromised by sitting too close to a likely fast gallop. If this sets up for the closers then Equiano Springs is surely the one to be on.

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