This Saturday the ITV cameras head to Wincanton with the Badger Beer Handicap Chase, their feature, plus they are also at Newcastle for the ultra-competitive November Handicap and also take in two Aintree contests – as always, here at SUREWIN we've got all the trends and stats for the LIVE races….. 

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ITV/SkyRacing)

1.30 – Virgin Bet Daily Extra Places Irish EBF Gillies Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4

16/18 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
15/18 – Had won at least twice before
15/18 – Had 3 or more runs that season
12/18 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
11/18 – Unplaced last time out
11/18 – Returned 8/1 or bigger in the betting
11/18 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
10/18 – Had won over 1m2f before
10/18 – Unplaced favourites
9/18 – Ran at either Lingfield (3), Goodwood (3) or Newmarket (3) last time out
7/18 – Won by an Irish-bred filly
4/18 – Trained by Ralph Beckett (2 of last 3)
2/18 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
2/18 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/18 – Won last time out
2/18 – Trained by Andrew Balding  (2 of last 10)
2/18  - Ridden by David Probert
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1

SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow

2.05 – Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Wentworth Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4

17/19 – Had at least 6 previous runs that season
17/19 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
17/19 – Had won over 6f before
16/19 – Won from stall 12 or lower
15/19 – Rated 99 or higher
15/19 – Aged 4 or older
13/19 – Had won at least 5 times before in their career
10/19 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
10/19 – Had won at Doncaster before
9/19 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
5/19 – Ran at York (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
5/19 – Won last time out
4/19 – Winning favourites (4 of last 10)
3/19 – Winning mare/filly
2/19 – Trained by Richard Hannon
8 of the last 9 winners carried 9-0 or more
Trainer Andrew Balding has won 2 of the last 4 runnings

SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow

3.45 – Virgin Bet November Handicap Cl2 1m4f ITV4

16/19 – Won between 2 and 4 races before
16/19 – Winners that came from draw 9 or higher
15/19 – Favourites that were unplaced
15/19 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
13/19 – Had raced at Doncaster before (6 had won)
13/19 – Had raced at least 5 times that season
13/19 – Placed last time out
12/19 – Had won over 1m4f before
12/19 – Won by a horse aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/19 – Won carrying 8-13 or less in weight
10/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/19 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/19 – Won last time out
3/19 -Trained by John Gosden (won it 6 times in all)
2/19 – Ridden by jockey Martin Dwyer
2/19 – Favourites that won
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 11/1
Just 2 winning favourites since 1995

SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow

Wincanton Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.15 – West Country Weekend Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Chase Cl3 (4yo+ 0-125) 2m4f ITV4

7/7 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
6/7 – Ridden by a claiming conditional jockey
6/7 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
6/7 – French or Irish bred
6/7 – Favourites placed in the top two
6/7 – Returned 5/1 or shorter
6/7 – Had won over 2m4f (fences)
6/7 – Carried 11-2 or more
5/7 – Didn’t win last time out
5/7 – Rated between 120-127
5/7 – Carried 11-5 or more
4/7 – Had run at Wincanton before
3/7 – Winning favourites
3/7 – Trained by Paul Nicholls

SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow

1.50 – Boodles ‘Rising Stars’ Novices Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV4

15/16 – Had won no more than twice over fences
15/16 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Irish (8) or French (5) bred
12/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/16 – Had won over 2m3f or further (Chase)
11/16 – Favourites placed
11/16 – Aged 6 or younger
9/16 – Won last time out
8/16 – Winning favourites
7/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/16 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
11 of the last 14 winners were aged between 5-7

SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow

2.25- West Country Elite Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

17/19 – Aged 7 or younger
17/19 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
16/19 – Came from the top three in the betting
14/19 – Won between 2-5 times before (hurdles)
14/19 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
11/19 – Rated 150 or lower
10/19 – Unplaced last time out
9/19 – Having first run of the season
7/19 – Won last time out
6/19 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
5/19 – Ran at Aintree last time out
5/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/19 – Trained by John Quinn
3/19 - Trained by Alan King (3 of the last 7)

SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow

3.00 – 62nd Badger Beer Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV4

19/20 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
18/20 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
17/20 – Won a 3m or further chase race previously
16/20 – Won by a horse aged between 7 and 9 years-old
16/20  – Placed in the top four in their last race
16/20 – Won at least two chase races previously
15/20 –  Raced at the course previously (over fences)
14/20 – Won between 2 and 5 times over fences before
14/20 – Favourites placed
12/20 – Irish-bred horse
12/20 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
11/20 – Raced already that season
11/20 – Raced at either Sandown (4), Wincanton (3) or Cheltenham (4) last time out
9/20 – Priced at double-figures
8/20 – Won their latest race
8/20 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
8/20 – Favourites that won (1 joint, 1 Co)
8/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
6/20 – Ridden by a claiming conditional jockey (including 6 of the last 11 years)
4/20 – Won by the Pipe stable
Frodon (9/4) won the race in 2022

SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow

3.32 – Richard Barber Memorial Mares’ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m5f ITV4

16/16 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Didn’t win last time out
14/16 – Aged 7 or younger
12/16 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had won over at least 2m4f before (hurdles)
12/16 – Had won at least twice before (hurdles)
11/16 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
11/16 – Rated between 119-129
10/16 – Finished 2^nd, 3^rd or 4^th last time out
9/16 – Aged 6 years-old
8/16 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
8/16 – Irish bred
7/16 – Had run at the track before
5/16 – Raced at Chepstow last time out
3/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 12)
2/16 – Trained by Harry Fry (2 of the last 10)
2/16 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/16 – Trained by Alan King (last 2)
2/16 – Ridden by Tom Cannon (last 2)

SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow

Aintree Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.45 – Boylesports Grand Sefton Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y ITV4

17/18 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
16/18 – Aged 8 or older
16/18 – Rated 124 or more
14/18 – Had won (chase) over at least 2m4f before
13/18 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
12/18 – Had run at Aintree before (5 over the GN style fences)
11/18 – Carried 10-12 or more
10/18 – Irish bred
9/18 – Returned a double-figure price
8/18 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
4/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National
2/18 – Ridden by Sean Bowen
1/18 – Won last time out
14 of the last 17 winners were aged 8 or 9 years-old
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 10 runnings

SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow

3.20 – Boylesports Acca Boost On Horse Racing Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo) 2m4f ITV4

8 previous runnings
7/8 - Aged 9 or younger
7/8 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
5/8 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
3/8 – Winning favourites
2/8 – Owned by Simon Munir and Isaac Souede
2/8 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/8 – Ridden by Nico de Boinville
Brewin’upastorm won the race in 2021

SUREWIN BEST BET: To follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To follow