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Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 5th Oct 2024

Monday, September 30, 2024

Some nice winners last week for the Saturday TV trends & tips so hoping for more of the same this weekend as the ITV cameras head to Newmarket, Ascot and Redcar to take in 8 LIVE races.

At Redcar, we've got the Two-Year-Old Trophy as their feature contest, while at Newmarket the Group One Royal Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes takes centre stage - a race the French have won 5 times in the last 0 years. Then at Ascot, we've four more races that include the Cumberland Lodge and John Guest Bengough Stakes, plus the ultra-competitive Challenge Cup Handicap.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on SUREWIN with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the big fields – So, let’s get going!

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/Sky Sports Racing)

1.50 – BetMGM Rous Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV

19/19 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
19/19 – Won over 5f before
18/19 – Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
15/19 – Rated 101 or higher
14/19 – Aged 5 or younger
13/19 – Had won between 3-7 times before
12/19 – Winning distance – ½ length or shorter
10/19 – Raced at Newbury last time out
9/19 – Unplaced last time out
9/19 – Yet to win at Listed or better class
7/19 – Irish bred
4/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Trained by Bryan Smart
3/19 – Trained by Michael Dods (3 of last 6 runnings)
3/19 – Won last time out
9 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 8 or lower
Emaraaty Ana won the race in 2023
15 of the last 16 winners came from stalls 11 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1

SUREWIN BEST BET: RELIEF RALLY
SUREWIN DANGER: DEMOCRACY DILEMMA

2.25 – BetMGM Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV

20/21 - Finished fourth or better last time out
18/21 – Placed favourites
18/21 – Had won over 1m4f before
17/21 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
17/21 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
16/21 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
16/21 – Won at Listed or Group class before
16/21 – Had raced at the course before (7 won)
14/21 – Had won 4 or more times before
12/21 – Winning distance 1 ¾ lengths or more
12/21 – Had 5 or more runs that season
11/21 – Favourites to win
11/21 – Won last time out
6/21 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
2/21 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of last 9)
2/21 – Trained by Owen Burrows (2 of last 6)
1/21 – Filly or mare winners
Al Qareem won the race in 2023
Hamish won the race in 2022
13 of the last 15 winners came from draws 8 or lower
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has won 2 of the last 11 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1
Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket

SUREWIN BEST BET: AL QAREEM
SUREWIN DANGER: GOD'S WINDOW

3.00 - John Guest Bengough Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV

15/15 – Won over 6f previously
15/15 – Officially rated 100 or higher
13/15 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
12/15 – Won 4 or more times previously
11/15 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
10/15 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/15 – Raced 6 or more times that season
6/15 – Won their previous race
6/15 – Favourites to win
3/15 – Returned a double-figure price
2/15 – Raced at the Curragh last time out
2/15 – Trained by Roger Charlton
4 of the last 6 winners came from stalls 6 & 8
9 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 5-8 (inc)
Vadream won the race in 2021
Horse from stall 7 has been placed in 7 of the last 12 runnings (3 wins)
Horses from stall 5, 6 and 7 have won 9 of the last 12 runnings

SUREWIN BEST BET: VADREAM
SUREWIN DANGER: ADAAY IN DEVON

3.35 – BetMGM Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV

20/21– Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
18/21 – Won over 7f previously
16/21 – Won between 2 and 4 previous races
16/21 – Raced at Ascot previously
15/21 – Had raced within the last 30 days
13/21 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/21 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
11/21 – Raced 7 or more times that season
10/21 – Returned a double-figure price
8/21 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
7/21 – Raced at Ayr last time out
6/21 – Favourites that won
2/21 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/21 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/21 – Won their previous race
0/21 – Filly or mare winners
11 of the last 13 winners carried 9-1 or more in weight
12 of the last 13 winners were aged 6 or younger
8 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 8-13 (inc)
5 of the last 15 horses from stall 10 were placed in the top 4
5 of the last 15 horses from stall 11 were placed in the top 3
2 of the last 5 winners came from stall 17
Popmaster was second in 2023
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 11/1

Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket
Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

SUREWIN BEST BET: AKKADIAN THUNDER
SUREWIN DANGER: DIVINE LIBRA

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/Racing TV)

1.30 - British EBF Premier Fillies´ Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV

Just 8 previous runnings
8/8 – Aged 3 or 4
7/8 – Favourites placed in the first three
7/8 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
6/8 – Carried 9st or more
5/8 – Didn’t win last time out
5/8 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
4/8 – Won just once before
4/8 – Had won over 1m2f before
3/8 – Winning favourites
2/8 – Trained by Roger Varian
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 7/1

SUREWIN BEST BET: MIN HUNA
SUREWIN DANGER: KARMOLOGY

2.05 – £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes Cl2 (2yo) 6f ITV

Just 9 previous runnings
9/9 – Foaled Feb or later
8/9 – Carried between 8-4 and 8-11 in weight
8/9 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
6/9 – Won from a double-figure draw
7/9 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
7/9 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
5/9 – Rated between 79-85
5/9 – Won just one before
4/9 – First 3 home came from double-figure draws
2/9 – Winning favourites
6 of the last 8 winners foaled in March or April
4 of the last 8 winners went to a filly

SUREWIN BEST BET: To Follow
SUREWIN DANGER: To Follow

2.40 – Virgin Bet Sun Chariot Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV

18/20 – Had won over at least 1m before
17/20 – Previous Group winners
14/20 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
13/20 – Won between 3-5 times before
13/20 – Rated between 113 and 119
13/20 – Previous Group One winners
10/20 – Aged 3 years-old
7/20 – Winning favourites (1 co)
7/20 – Raced at Deauville last time out
7/20 – Won last time out
6/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/20 – French-trained winners
3/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/20 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 8)
2/20 – Won by a previous winner of the race
16 of the last 17 winners came from stalls 9 or lower
Horses from stall 1 have won 5 of the last 18 runnings
Horses from stalls 1 (4) or 7 (2) or 9 (2) have won 8 of the last 14
Trainer John Gosden has won 2 of the last 4 runnings (3 in total)
Inspiral won the race in 2023

SUREWIN BEST BET: TAMFANA
SUREWIN DANGER: SEE THE FIRE

Redcar Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

3.20 – William Hill Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4

19/22 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
17/22 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
16/22 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/22 – Had won 1 or 2 previous races
13/22 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/22 – Foaled in March or later
12/22 – Had won over 6f before
11/22 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
8/22 – Unplaced favourites
8/22 – Winning favourites
6/22 – Filly winners
6/22 – Won last time out
6/22 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/22 – Trained by Tim Easterby (4 wins in total)
2/22 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3 of the last 8 winners came from stall 8
7 of the last 10 winners came between stalls 6-12 (inc)

 

SUREWIN BEST BET: UNCLE DON
SUREWIN DANGER: NORTHERN TICKER

 

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