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Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 4th Nov 2023

Wednesday, November 1, 2023

Another cracking Saturday of LIVE ITV Racing with two jumping cards.

At Wetherby, the Grade Two Charlie Hall Chase is their main event, while at Ascot the competitive Bateaux London Gold Cup Handicap is always a competitive affair to unravel - a race the Gary Moore yard often do well in, you can get his thoughts here.

Did you know? Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the Charlie Hall Chase four times

To help, here at SUREWIN we're on hand with all the key race trends for this Saturday’s LIVE ITV races - use these stats to whittle down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/SkyRacing)

1.30 - Ascot Underwriting Novices´ Limited Handicap Chase Cl3 2m3f ITV

10 previous runnings
10/10 – Aged 7 or younger
9/10 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Irish bred
8/10 – Yet to win over fences
6/10 – Aged 6 year-old
4/10 – Had run at Ascot before
3/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Trained by Gary Moore (2 of the last 6)
2/10 – Ridden by Jamie Moore (2 of the last 6)

SUREWIN BEST BET: HERMINO AA
SUREWIN DANGER: SCARFACE

2.05 – Byrne Group Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m1f ITV

17/20 – Aged 8 years-old or younger
14/20 – Irish (5) or French (9) bred
14/20 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences before
13/20 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
11/20 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
11/20 – Having their first run of the new season
9/20 – Unplaced favourites
8/20 – Rated 130 or lower
6/20 – Won last time out
5/20 – Aged 8 years-old
5/20 – Ran at either Ascot (2) or Aintree (3) last time out
5/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/20 – Won carrying 11-12
3/20 – Winning favourites
3/20 – Trained by Venetia Williams
5 of the last 7 winners were aged 7
9 of the last 10 winners aged 7 or younger

SUREWIN BEST BET: FUNAMBULE SIVOLA
SUREWIN DANGER: RED ROOKIE

3.15 – Seat Unique Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl1 2m ITV

19/19 – Had won over at 2m or 2m1f over hurdles before
18/19 – Aged between 4 and 6 years-old
15/19 – Never raced at Ascot before
15/19 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles
11/19 – Having their first run of the season
10/19 – Unplaced last time out
10/19 – Placed favourites
9/19 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
8/19 – Winning favourites (1 co, 2 joint)
6/19 – Won by a French bred horse
6/19 – Ran at Huntingdon (3) or Aintree (3) last time out
4/19 – Ridden by a conditional jockey
3/19 – Won by trainer Alan King, including two of last 6 renewals
2/19 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/19 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
2/19 - Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
7 of the last 14 winners were aged 5 years-old

SUREWIN BEST BET: BAD
SUREWIN DANGER: TEDDY BLUE

3.45 – Sodexo Live! Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ITV

18/18 – Had won a chase race over at least 2m4f before
15/18 – Didn’t win last time out
13/18 – Had run at Ascot before (6 won)
12/18 – Carried 10-10 or more
11/18 – Aged 8 or older
10/18 – Had won at least 3 times over fences before
11/18 – Having their first run of the season
10/18 – Unplaced favourites
11/18 – Unplaced in their last race
10/18 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
9/18 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before
7/18 – Officially rated 135 to 138 inc
6/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Won by the Pipe stable
3/18 – Trained by Gary Moore (3 of the last 7)
2/18 – Ran at Sandown last time out
2/18 – Ridden by Aidan Coleman
11 of the last 13 winners were aged 9 or younger

SUREWIN BEST BET: LARRY
SUREWIN DANGER: MONBEG GENIUS

 

Wetherby Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1:15 – Bet Boost at bet365 Handicap Chase (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-125) 2m 3 1/2f ITV

5 previous runnings
5/5 – Didn’t win last time out
5/5 – Carried 10-13 or more
5/5 – Favourites finished in top 3
5/5 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
4/5 – Aged between 5-8 years-old
3/8 – Had run at Wetherby before
3/5 – Won over 2m4f + before
3/5 – Returned 3/1 or shorter
3/5 – French bred
3/5 – Favourites
2/5 – Ran at Warwick last time out
2/5 – Ridden by Jonathan Burke
Ladronne won the race last year

SUREWIN BEST BET: THE EDGAR WALLACE
SUREWIN DANGER: LADRONNE

1.50 – bet365 Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m110y ITV

15/16 – Had won over at least 2m1f over hurdles before
13/16 – Had between 2-5 previous hurdles wins to their name
13/16 – Having their first run of the season
11/16 – Never raced at Wetherby before
11/16 – Placed favourites
10/16 – Finished unplaced last time out
9/16 – Had won a NH Flat race previously
8/16 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
7/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Ran at Punchestown last time out
2/16 – Trained by John Quinn
2/16 – Trained by Philip Kirby
2/16 – Trained by Dan Skelton (last 2)

SUREWIN BEST BET: KATERIA
SUREWIN DANGER: LUCCIA

2.25 – bet365 Hurdle (West Yorkshire Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m26y ITV

21/21 – Had won over at least 2m3f over hurdles before
20/21 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
19/21 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
16/21 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance
17/21 – Failed to win their last race
15/21 – Officially rated 148 or higher
15/21 – Placed favourites
15/21 – Aged 6,7 or 8 years-old
12/21 – Finished unplaced last time out
10/21 – Ran at either Aintree (5) or Cheltenham (5) last time out
8/21 – Had won at Wetherby before
5/21 – Winning favourites
3/21 – Trained by the Philip Hobbs yard
3/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/21 – Trained by Dan Skelton
2/21 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan

SUREWIN BEST BET: DASHEL DRASHER
SUREWIN DANGER: BOXTOX HAS

3.00 – bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV

19/21 – Rated 151 or higher
18/21 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
17/21 – Were having their first run of the season
16/21 – Had won over at least 3m over fences before
14/21 – Aged 8 or older
14/21 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
12/21 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
12/21 – Ran at Ayr (3), Aintree (7) or Cheltenham (2) last time out
11/21 – Placed favourites
8/21 – Had run at Wetherby before (4 won)
8/21  - Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
4/21 – Winning favouristes
4/21 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (6 wins in total)
3/21 - Trained by Paul Nicholls (5 wins in total)
2/21 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/21 – Ridden by Harry Cobden (2 of last 3)
2/21 – Trained by Evan Williams
Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race in 1992, 1994, 2005, 2007, 2017 and 2019
The average winning SP in the last 21 runnings is 13/2
The last winner aged 10+ was in 2004 (18 runs ago) The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 13/2
The last winner aged 10+ was in 2004 (18 runs ago)
Bravemansgame (2/1) won the race in 2022

SUREWIN BEST BET: BRAVEMANSGAME
SUREWIN DANGER: AHOY SENOR

3:30 - Never Ordinary At bet365 Handicap Hurdle 2m 3 1/2f ITV

9/9 – Returned 9/1 or shorter
8/9 – Carried 11st or more
7/9 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
7/9  - Having first run of the new season
7/9 – GB or Irish bred
7/9 – Placed favourites
7/9 – Won no more than once over hurdles
6/9 – Unplaced last time out
6/9 – Carried 11-5 or more
5/9 – Had won over 2m4f or further
3/9 – Winning favourites
3/9 – Won last time out
2/9 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/9 – Ridden by Brian Hughes

SUREWIN BEST BET: WINDTOTHELIGHTNING
SUREWIN DANGER: DECORATED

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