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Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 7th Oct 2023

Monday, October 2, 2023

Some nice winners last week for the Saturday TV trends & tips so hoping for more of the same this weekend as the ITV cameras head to Newmarket, Ascot and Redcar to take in 8 LIVE races.

At Redcar, we've got the Two-Year-Old Trophy as their feature contest, while at Newmarket the Group One Royal Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes takes centre stage - a race the French have won 5 times in the last 19 years. Then at Ascot, we've four more races that include the Cumberland Lodge and John Guest Bengough Stakes, plus the ultra-competitive Challenge Cup Handicap.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on SUREWIN with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the big fields – So, let’s get going!

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

1.50 – Blue Eagle Rous Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV4

18/18 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
18/18 – Won over 5f before
17/18 – Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Aged 5 or younger
14/18 – Rated 101 or higher
12/18 – Winning distance – ½ length or shorter
12/18 – Had won between 3-7 times before
10/18 – Raced at Newbury last time out
9/18 – Unplaced last time out
9/18 – Yet to win at Listed or better class
7/18 – Irish bred
3/18 – Trained by Bryan Smart
3/18 – Trained by Michael Dods (3 of last 5 runnings)
3/18 – Won last time out
3/18 – Winning favourites
8 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 8 or lower
Tis Marvellous won the race in 2021
14 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 11 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1

SUREWIN BEST BET: EMARAATY ANA
SUREWIN DANGER: NYMPHADORA

2.25 – Jim Barry Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV4

19/20 - Finished fourth or better last time out
18/20 – Placed favourites
17/20 – Had won over 1m4f before
16/20 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
16/20 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
15/20 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
15/20 – Won at Listed or Group class before
15/20 – Had raced at the course before (7 won)
13/20 – Had won 4 or more times before
12/20 – Winning distance 1 ¾ lengths or more
12/20 – Had 5 or more runs that season
11/20 – Favourites to win
10/20– Won last time out
6/20 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
2/20 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of last 8)
2/20 – Trained by Owen Burrows (2 of last 5)
1/20 – Filly or mare winners
Hamish (11/10 fav) won the race last year
12 of the last 14 winners came from draws 8 or lower
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has won 2 of the last 9 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1
Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket

SUREWIN BEST BET: AL AASY
SUREWIN DANGER: AL QAREEM

3.00 - John Guest Bengough Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV4

14/14 – Won over 6f previously
14/14 – Officially rated 100 or higher
12/14 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
11/14 – Won 4 or more times previously
10/14 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
9/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/14 – Raced 6 or more times that season
5/14 – Won their previous race
5/14 – Favourites to win
3/14 – Returned a double-figure price
2/14 – Raced at the Curragh last time out
2/14 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2 of the last 5 winners came from stalls 6
8 of the last 10 winners came between stalls 5-8 (inc)
Vadream won the race in 2021
Horse from stall 7 has been placed in 7 of the last 11 runnings (3 wins)
Horses from stall 5, 6 and 7 have won 8 of the last 11 runnings

SUREWIN BEST BET: JUAN LES PINS
SUREWIN DANGER: VADREAM

3.35 – Howden Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV4

19/20 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
17/20 – Won over 7f previously
16/20 – Won between 2 and 4 previous races
15/20 – Raced at Ascot previously
14/20 – Had raced within the last 30 days
12/20 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/20 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
10/20 – Raced 7 or more times that season
9/20 – Returned a double-figure price
8/20 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
7/20 – Raced at Ayr last time out
6/20 – Favourites that won
2/20 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/20 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/20 – Won their previous race
0/20 – Filly or mare winners
10 of the last 12 winners carried 9-1 or more in weight
11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or younger
7 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 8-13 (inc)
5 of the last 14 horses from stall 10 were placed in the top 4
4 of the last 14 horses from stall 11 were placed in the top 3
2 of the last 4 winners came from stall 17
Escobar won the race in 2022
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 9/1

Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket

SUREWIN BEST BET: ESCOBAR (e/w)
SUREWIN DANGER: FRESH

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.30 - British EBF Premier Fillies´ Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4

Just 7 previous runnings
7/7 – Favourites placed in the first three
6/7 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
5/7 – Didn’t win last time out
5/7 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
4/7 – Won just once before
3/7 – Had won over 1m2f before
3/7 – Winning favourites
2/7 – Trained by Roger Varian
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 13/2

SUREWIN BEST BET: WHISPERING WORDS
SUREWIN DANGER: TOTNES

2.05 – £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes Cl2 (2yo) 6f ITV4

Just 8 previous runnings
8/8 – Foaled Feb or later
7/8 – Carried between 8-4 and 8-11 in weight
7/8 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
6/8 – Won from a double-figure draw
6/8 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
6/8 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
5/8 – Rated between 79-85
5/8 – Won just one before
4/8 – First 3 home came from double-figure draws
2/8 – Winning favourites

SUREWIN BEST BET: ZOULU CHIEF
SUREWIN DANGER: WOODHAY WONDER


3.15 –
Virgin Bet Sun Chariot Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV4

17/19 – Had won over at least 1m before
16/19 – Previous Group winners
14/19 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
13/19 – Won between 3-5 times before
12/19 – Rated between 113 and 119
12/19 – Previous Group One winners
10/19 – Aged 3 years-old
6/19 – Winning favourites (1 co)
6/19 – Raced at Deauville last time out
6/19 – Won last time out
6/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/19 – French-trained winners
3/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 7)
2/19 – Won by a previous winner of the race
15 of the last 16 winners came from stalls 9 or lower
Horses from stall 1 have won 5 of the last 17 runnings
Horses from stalls 1 (4) or 7 (2) or 9 (2) have won 8 of the last 13

SUREWIN BEST BET: INSPIRAL
SUREWIN DANGER: MQSE DE SEVIGNE

 

Redcar Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.45 – William Hill Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4

18/21 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
16/21 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
15/21 – Had won 1 or 2 previous races
15/21 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/21 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/21 – Foaled in March or later
11/21 – Had won over 6f before
10/21 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
8/21 – Unplaced favourites
7/21 – Winning favourites
6/21 – Filly winners
6/21 – Won last time out
5/21 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/21 – Trained by Tim Easterby (4 wins in total)
2/21 – Trained by Richard Fahey

 

SUREWIN BEST BET: DRAGON LEADER
SUREWIN DANGER: FLACCIANELLO

 

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