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Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 2nd Nov 2024

Monday, October 28, 2024

Another cracking Saturday of LIVE ITV Racing with two jumping cards.

At Wetherby, the Grade Two Charlie Hall Chase is their main event, while at Ascot the competitive Bateaux London Gold Cup Handicap is always a competitive affair to unravel - a race the Gary Moore yard often do well in, you can get his thoughts here.

Did you know? Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the Charlie Hall Chase four times

To help, here at SUREWIN we're on hand with all the key race trends for this Saturday’s LIVE ITV races - use these stats to whittle down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/SkyRacing)

1.30 - Ascot Underwriting Novices´ Limited Handicap Chase Cl3 2m3f ITV

11/11 – Aged 7 or younger
9/11 – Aged 6 or 7
9/11 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Irish bred
9/11 – Yet to win over fences
7/11 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
6/11 – Aged 6 year-old
5/11 – Had run at Ascot before
3/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Trained by Gary Moore (2 of the last 7)

SUREWIN BEST BET: LEADER IN THE PARK
SUREWIN DANGER:SAMARRIVE

2.05 – Byrne Group Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m1f ITV

18/21 – Aged 8 years-old or younger
15/21 – Irish (6) or French (9) bred
15/21 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences before
14/21 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
12/21 – Having their first run of the new season
11/21 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
9/21 – Unplaced favourites
8/21 – Rated 130 or lower
6/21 – Won last time out
6/21 – Aged 8 years-old
5/21 – Ran at either Ascot (2) or Aintree (3) last time out
5/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/21 – Won carrying 11-12
4/21 – Winning favourites
3/21 – Trained by Venetia Williams
5 of the last 8 winners were aged 7
6 of the last 9 winners carried 11-1 or more
3 of the last 10 winners were ridden by a claimer
9 of the last 11 winners aged 7 or younger

SUREWIN BEST BET: SAINT SEGAL
SUREWIN DANGER:MARTATOR 

3.15 – Lavazza Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl1 2m ITV

20/20 – Had won over at 2m or 2m1f over hurdles before
18/20 – Aged between 4 and 6 years-old
16/20 – Never raced at Ascot before
16/20 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles
12/20 – Having their first run of the season
11/20 – Unplaced last time out
10/20 – Placed favourites
10/20 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
8/20 – Winning favourites (1 co, 2 joint)
7/20 – Ran at Huntingdon (3) or Aintree (4) last time out
6/20 – Won by a French bred horse
5/20 – Ridden by a conditional jockey
3/20 – Won by trainer Alan King, including two of last 7 renewals
2/20 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/20 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
2/20 - Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
7 of the last 15 winners were aged 5 years-old
Trainer Philip Hobbs has won 2 of the last 8 runnings

SUREWIN BEST BET: FIRE FLYER
SUREWIN DANGER: BREAK MY SOUL 

3.45 – Sodexo Live! Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ITV

19/19 – Had won a chase race over at least 2m4f before
16/19 – Didn’t win last time out
13/19 – Had run at Ascot before (6 won)
13/19 – Carried 10-10 or more
12/19 – Having their first run of the season
12/19 – Unplaced in their last race
11/19 – Aged 8 or older
11/19 – Unplaced favourites
11/19 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
10/19 – Had won at least 3 times over fences before
9/19 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before
8/19 – Officially rated 135 to 138 inc
7/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Won by the Pipe stable
3/19 – Trained by Gary Moore (3 of the last 8)
2/19 – Ran at Sandown last time out
12 of the last 14 winners were aged 9 or younger
Victtorino won the race in 2023
Two For Gold was 2nd in 2023
Our Power won the race in 2022

 

SUREWIN BEST BET: CHIANTI CLASSICO
SUREWIN DANGER: TWO FOR GOLD

 

Wetherby Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1:15 – Bet Boost at bet365 Handicap Chase (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-125) 2m 3 1/2f ITV

6 previous runnings
6/6 – Didn’t win last time out
6/6 – Carried 10-13 or more
6/6 – Favourites finished in top 3
5/6 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
5/6 – Aged between 5-8 years-old
4/6 – Won over 2m4f + before
4/6 – Favourites
3/6 – Had run at Wetherby before
3/6 – Returned 3/1 or shorter
3/6 – French bred
2/6 – Ran at Warwick last time out
2/6 – Ridden by Jonathan Burke
Geryville won the race in 2021

SUREWIN BEST BET: KING'S THRESHOLD
SUREWIN DANGER: WILLIAM CODY 

1.50 – bet365 Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m110y ITV

16/17 – Had won over at least 2m1f over hurdles before
14/17 – Had between 2-5 previous hurdles wins to their name
14/17 – Having their first run of the season
12/17 – Never raced at Wetherby before
12/17 – Placed favourites
11/17 – Finished unplaced last time out
10/17 – Had won a NH Flat race previously
9/17 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
7/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Ran at Punchestown last time out
2/17 – Trained by John Quinn
2/17 – Trained by Philip Kirby
2/17 – Trained by Dan Skelton (2 of the last 3)
Jockey Harry Skelton has ridden 2 of the last 3 winners
The last 10 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
9 of the last 10 winners returned 7/2 or shorter

SUREWIN BEST BET: LUCCIA
SUREWIN DANGER: TAKE NO CHANCES 

2.22 – bet365 Hurdle (West Yorkshire Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m26y ITV

22/22 – Had won over at least 2m3f over hurdles before
21/22 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
20/22 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
17/22 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance
18/22 – Failed to win their last race
16/22 – Officially rated 148 or higher
16/22 – Aged 6,7 or 8 years-old
15/22 – Placed favourites
13/22 – Finished unplaced last time out
11/22 – Ran at either Aintree (5) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
8/22 – Had won at Wetherby before
5/22 – Winning favourites
3/22 – Trained by the Philip Hobbs yard
3/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/22 – Trained by Dan Skelton

SUREWIN BEST BET: KATEIRA
SUREWIN DANGER: THUNDER ROCK 

2.58 – bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV

20/22 – Rated 151 or higher
19/22 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
17/22 – Were having their first run of the season
16/22 – Had won over at least 3m over fences before
14/22 – Aged 8 or older
14/22 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
12/22 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
12/22 – Ran at Ayr (3), Aintree (7) or Cheltenham (2) last time out
11/22 – Placed favourites
9/22 - Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/22 – Had run at Wetherby before (4 won)
4/22 – Winning favourites
4/22 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (6 wins in total)
3/22 - Trained by Paul Nicholls (5 wins in total)
2/22 – Ridden by Harry Cobden (2 of last 4)
2/22 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/22 – Trained by Evan Williams
The last 19 winners aged 9 or younger
Bravemansgame won the race in 2022
Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race in 1992, 1994, 2005, 2007, 2017 and 2019
The average winning SP in the last 22 runnings is 13/2
The last winner aged 10+ was in 2004 (20 runs ago)

SUREWIN BEST BET: BRAVEMANSGAME
SUREWIN DANGER: GREY DAWNING

3:32 - Never Ordinary At bet365 Handicap Hurdle 2m 3 1/2f ITV

10/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter
9/10 – Carried 11st or more
8/10 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
8/10 - Having first run of the new season
8/10 – Placed favourites
7/10 – Won no more than once over hurdles
7/10 – GB or Irish bred
7/10 – Carried 11-5 or more
6/10 – Unplaced last time out
5/10 – Had won over 2m4f or further
4/10 – Winning favourites
3/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Ridden by Brian Hughes
3 of the last 9 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey

SUREWIN BEST BET: GOBLET OF FIRE
SUREWIN DANGER: SPIRITS BAY 

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