It’s King George Day at Ascot this Saturday as some of the best middle-distance horses in the world line-up for this lucrative Group One. We’ve four LIVE ITV races to take in at the Berkshire track, while there’s also three races at York that are headlined by the Group Two Sky Bet York Stakes.

As always, here at SUREWIN, we’ve got all the key trends for LIVE ITV Races this Saturday (29th July 2023) – use these stats to find the best profiles of past winners and narrow down the runners.

Ascot Horse Racing Trends

1:50 - Princess Margaret Keenland Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV

18/21 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
17/21 – Had won just once before
16/21 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
16/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
16/21 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
16/21 – Won over 6f before
14/21 – Foaled in either Feb or March
11/21 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
10/21 – Winning favourite
7/21 – Won last time out
5/21 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/21 – Won by the Hannon yard
2/21 – Won by the Johnston yard (3 in total)
10 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 7 or lower
11 of the last 18 winners were Irish bred
10 of the last 18 horses from stall 1 were placed
5 of the last 12 winners came from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2
Sacred Angel (16/1) won the race in 2023
Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newbury

SUREWIN Best Bet: SIMMERING
SUREWIN Danger: TALES OF THE HEART

2.25 – Longines Valiant Stakes (Group 3) (Filles and Mares) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m ITV

11/12 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/12 – Won over at least 7f before
12/12 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
11/12 – Won 2 or 3 times in the past
9/12 – Came from stalls 3-8 (inc)
8/12 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/12 – Unplaced favourites
6/12 – Irish bred
5/12 – Won last time out
5/12 – Had run at Ascot before
2/12 – Winning favourites (last in 2015)
2/12 – Trained by Ed Walker (2 of the last)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2
Random Harvest (10/3) won the race in 2023

SUREWIN Best Bet: SOPRANO
SUREWIN Danger: DOOM

3.00 - Moet & Chandon International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 7f ITV

21/21 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
21/21 – Had raced at Ascot previously
19/21 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
17/21 – Carried 8-9 or more in weight
16/21 – Won over 7f previously
16/21 – Won between 2-4 times previously
14/21 – Favourites unplaced
14/21 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
13/21 – Winners that came from outside the top three in the market
12/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
11/21 – Aged 4 years-old
9/21 – Raced at Ascot last time out
7/21 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/21 – Won their last race
3/21 – Trained by the Johnston yard
3/21 – Winning favourites (2 of the last 4)
2/21 – Trained by Clive Cox
Trainer Richard Fahey has won the race three times in the last 14 years
15 of the last 17 winners ran at Ascot, Newmarket or Haydock last time out
13 of the last 17 winners came from a double-figure stall
10 of the last 17 winners finished in the top 5 last time out
Baradar (16/1) won the race in 2023
Fresh (8/1) won the race in 2022
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/1
Note: The 2005 running was staged at Newbury

SUREWIN Best Bet: ORAZIO
SUREWIN Danger: FRESH

3:40 - King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes (Group 1) (British Champion Series) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m4f ITV

22/22 – Previous Group 1 or 2 winners
20/22 – Had won over 1m4f before
19/22 – Placed last time out
18/22 – Had 2 or more runs already that season
18/22 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
18/22 – Previous Group 1 winner
17/22 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
14/22 – Had run Ascot before
13/22 – Won their previous race
12/22 – Aged 4 years-old
10/22 – Favourites that won
10/22 – Won at Ascot before
8/22 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
5/22 – Trained by John Gosden
4/22 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/22 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
Just three 6+ year-old winners since 1951
Frankie Dettori has ridden the winner in 1995, 1998, 1999, 2004, 2017, 2019 and 2020
2 of the last 9 winners were that season’s Epsom Oaks winner
Adayar (2021) and Galileo (2001) were the last horses to do the Derby/King George double in the same season
Trainer John Gosden won the race in 2011, 2014, 2017, 2019 & 2020
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 1981, 1983, 2002, 2009, 2010 & 2018
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor won the race in 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999 & 2004
Trainer Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2001, 2007, 2008 & 2016
The average winning SP in the last 22 runnings is 4/1

SUREWIN Best Bet: AUGUSTE RODIN
SUREWIN Danger: BLUESTOCKING

York Horse Racing Trends

2.05 - Sky Bet ‘Jump Jockeys’ Nunthorpe’ Handicap (To Be Ridden By Professional Jump Jockeys) Cl3 (4yo+ 0-90) 5f ITV

Just 6 previous runnings
5/6 - Aged between 5-7 (inc)
5/6 - Carried between 10-8 and 11-1 in weight
3/6 - Won by trainer Paul Midgley
2/6 – Trained by David O’Meara
1/6 - Winning favourite
The last 2 winners returned 25/1
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 14/1
Birkenhead (25/1) won the race in 2022
Soul Seeker (11/2) won the race in 2021 and 2023

SUREWIN Best Bet: SOUL SEEKER
SUREWIN Danger: PRINCESS KARINE

2.40 - Sky Bet Dash Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV

20/20 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
18/20 – Carried 8-12 or more
16/20 – Had won between 2-6 times before
17/20 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
14/20 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
14/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
14/20 – Had run at York before
13/19 – Aged 5 or younger
13/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/20 – Placed favourites
11/20 – Raced at Hamilton, York, Newmarket or Ascot last time
6/20 – Winning favourites
2/20 – Trained by Michael Dods (2 of the last 5)
2/20 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/20 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/20 – Won last time out
2/20 – Trained by David O’Meara (2 of the last 4)
Jockey Connor Beasley has ridden 3 of the last 5 winners
12 of the last 18 winners carried 9-0 or more
Aberama Gold (7/1) won the race in 2023
Dakota Gold (10/1) won the race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

SUREWIN Best Bet: FERROUS
SUREWIN Danger: SILKY WILKIE

3.15 - Sky Bet York Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2½f ITV

17/18 – Aged 6 or younger
16/18 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
15/18 – Had won at least 4 times before
14/18 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
13/18 – Had won over 1m2f before
13/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/18 – Rated between 110 and 117
12/18 – Horses from stall one that finished in the top two
11/18 – Had run at York before
8/18 – Ran at Sandown last time out
6/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Aged 6 years-old
2/18 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
Alflaila (5/1) won the race in 2023
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1

SUREWIN Best Bet: ALFLAILA
SUREWIN Danger: PASSENGER