It’s King George Day at Ascot this Saturday as some of the best middle-distance horses in the world line-up for this lucrative Group One. We’ve four LIVE ITV races to take in at the Berkshire track, while there’s also three races at York that are headlined by the Group Two Sky Bet York Stakes.

As always, here at SUREWIN, we’ve got all the key trends for LIVE ITV Races this Saturday (26th July 2025) – use these stats to find the best profiles of past winners and narrow down the runners.

Ascot Horse Racing Trends

1:40 – Sodexo Live! Princess Margaret Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV

19/22 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
17/22 – Had won just once before
17/22 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
17/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
17/22 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
16/22 – Won over 6f before
15/22 – Foaled in either Feb or March
11/22 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
11/22 – Winning favourite
7/22 – Won last time out
6/22 – Ran at Ascot last time out
4/22 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/22 – Won by the Hannon yard
2/22 – Won by the Johnston yard (3 in total)
10 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 7 or lower
11 of the last 19 winners were Irish bred
11 of the last 19 horses from stall 1 were placed
5 of the last 13 winners came from stall 1
Ryan Moore has ridden 2 of the last 8 winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2
Simmering (11/8 fav) won the race in 2024
Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newbury

SUREWIN Best Bet: To Follow
SUREWIN Danger: To Follow

2:20 – Longines Valiant Stakes (Group 3) (Filles and Mares) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m ITV

13/13 – Won over at least 7f before
12/13 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/13 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
12/13 – Won 2 or 3 times in the past
9/13 – Came from stalls 3-8 (inc)
8/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
8/13 – Unplaced favourites
6/13 – Irish bred
5/13 – Won last time out
5/13 – Had run at Ascot before
2/13 – Winning favourites (last in 2015)
2/13 – Trained by Ed Walker (2 of the last 4)
Kieran Shoemark has ridden 2 of the last 4 winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2
The last 3 winners ALL priced 10/3
Friendly Soul (10/3) won the race in 2024

SUREWIN Best Bet: To Follow
SUREWIN Danger: To Follow

3:00 - International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 7f ITV

22/22 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
22/22 – Had raced at Ascot previously
19/22 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
18/22 – Carried 8-9 or more in weight
17/22 – Won over 7f previously
16/22 – Won between 2-4 times previously
15/22 – Favourites unplaced
15/22 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
14/22 – Winners that came from outside the top three in the market
13/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
11/22 – Aged 4 years-old
9/22 – Raced at Ascot last time out
7/22 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/22 – Won their last race
3/22 – Trained by the Johnston yard
3/22 – Winning favourites (2 of the last 5)
2/22 – Trained by Clive Cox
Trainer Richard Fahey has won the race three times in the last 15 years
15 of the last 18 winners ran at Ascot, Newmarket or Haydock last time out
13 of the last 18 winners came from a double-figure stall
11 of the last 18 winners finished in the top 5 last time out
9 of the last 10 winners aged 4-6 years-old
Northern Express (22/1) won the race in 2024
Fresh (8/1) won the race in 2022
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 14/1
Note: The 2005 running was staged at Newbury

SUREWIN Best Bet: To Follow
SUREWIN Danger: To Follow

3:35 – Betfred Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m ITV

Only 3 previous runnings
3/3 – Carried 9-7 or more
3/3 – Aged between 4-7
2/3 – Winning favourites
2/3 – Drawn in stall 10 (last 2)
Trainers William Haggas, Saeed Bin Suroor and Archie Watson have won the race
William Haggas has a 24% SR with his 3 year-olds at the track

SUREWIN Best Bet: To Follow
SUREWIN Danger: To Follow

4:10 - King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes (Group 1) (British Champion Series) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m4f ITV

22/23 – Previous Group 1 or 2 winners
21/23 – Had won over 1m4f before
20/23 – Placed last time out
19/23 – Had 2 or more runs already that season
18/23 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
18/23 – Previous Group 1 winner
18/23 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
14/23 – Had run Ascot before
13/23 – Won their previous race
13/23 – Aged 4 years-old
10/23 – Favourites that won
10/23 – Won at Ascot before
9/23 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
5/23 – Trained by John Gosden
3/23 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
No winner from stall 1 since 1999 (Daylami)
Just three 6+ year-old winners since 1951
Frankie Dettori has ridden the winner in 1995, 1998, 1999, 2004, 2017, 2019 and 2020
2 of the last 10 winners were that season’s Epsom Oaks winner
Just 1 French-trained winner since 2007 (Goliath 2024)
Adayar (2021) and Galileo (2001) were the last horses to do the Derby/King George double in the same season
Trainer John Gosden won the race in 2011, 2014, 2017, 2019 & 2020
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor won the race in 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999 & 2004
Trainer Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2001, 2007, 2008 & 2016
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

SUREWIN Best Bet: To Follow
SUREWIN Danger: To Follow

York Horse Racing Trends

2:00 - Sky Bet Dash Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV

20/21 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
19/21 – Carried 8-12 or more
17/21 – Had won between 2-6 times before
17/21 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
15/21 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
15/21 – Had run at York before
14/21 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
14/21 – Aged 5 or younger
13/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/21 – Placed favourites
11/21 – Raced at Hamilton, York, Newmarket or Ascot last time
6/21 – Winning favourites
2/21 – Trained by Michael Dods (2 of the last 6)
2/21 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/21 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/21 – Won last time out
2/20 – Trained by David O’Meara (2 of the last 5)
Jockey Connor Beasley has ridden 3 of the last 6 winners
13 of the last 19 winners carried 9-0 or more
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/1

SUREWIN Best Bet: To Follow
SUREWIN Danger: To Follow

2:40 - Sky Bet York Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2½f ITV

18/19 – Aged 6 or younger
17/19 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
16/19 – Had won at least 4 times before
14/19 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
14/19 – Had won over 1m2f before
14/19 – Rated between 110 and 118
13/19 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/19 – Horses from stall one that finished in the top two
12/19 – Had run at York before
8/19 – Ran at Sandown last time out
7/19 – Winning favourites
4/19 – Aged 6 years-old
2/19 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
Alflaila (9/4 fav) won the race in 2024
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

SUREWIN Best Bet: To Follow
SUREWIN Danger: To Follow

3:20 - Sky Bet ‘Jump Jockeys’ Nunthorpe’ Handicap (To Be Ridden By Professional Jump Jockeys) Cl3 (4yo+ 0-90) 5f ITV

Just 7 previous runnings
6/7 - Aged between 5-7 (inc)
5/7 - Carried between 10-8 and 11-1 in weight
3/7 - Won by trainer Paul Midgley
2/7 – Trained by David O’Meara
2/7 - Winning favourite
2 of the last 3 winners returned 25/1
3 of the last 6 winners from stall 8
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 13/1
Night Of Earth (6/1 fav) won the race in 2024
Birkenhead (25/1) won the race in 2022
Soul Seeker (11/2) won the race in 2021 and 2023

SUREWIN Best Bet: To Follow
SUREWIN Danger: To Follow