One of the highlights of the jump calendar this Saturday as we've day two of the Cheltenham November Meeting - four LIVE ITV races to take in from Prestbury Park that include the Paddy Power Gold Cup, while we've also two decent Listed races at Newcastle as the AW winter season starts to move up a few notches.

Did you know that 14 of the last 22 Paddy Power Gold Cup winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old?

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at SUREWIN with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get  GOING!

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1:45 – Paddy Power Arkle Challenge Trophy Trial Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (Registered as the November) (GBB) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m ITV

12/13 - Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
12/13 - Finished first or second last time out
12/13 - Won between 0-1 times over fences
11/13 - Favourites placed in the first three
10/13 - Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/13 - Had raced at Cheltenham before (hurdles/chase)
9/13 - Won last time out
8/13 - Ran at Cheltenham (4), Aintree (2) or Uttoxeter (2) last time out
6/13 - French bred
5/13 - Winning favourites
3/13 - Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/13 - Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/13 – Ridden by Harry Skelton
2/13 – Trained by Dan Skelton
The last 9 winners aged 5 or 6 years-old

SUREWIN BEST BET: L'EAU DU SUD
SUREWIN DANGER: PETIT TONNERRE

2.20 – Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV4

21/22 – Had run at Cheltenham before
21/22 – Had won over at least 2m4f over fences before
21/22 – Won by a UK-based trainer
18/22 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
15/22 – Carried 11st or less
15/22 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
15/22 – Had won at Cheltenham before
14/22 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
13/22 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences before
12/22 – Trained by Pipe (3), Jonjo O’Neill (3), Nicholls (3) or Twiston-Davies (3)
11/22 – Placed favourites
11/22 – Won by a horse in the first 3 in the betting
10/22 – Aged 7 years-old
9/22 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance
5/22 – Won their last race
5/22 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/22 – Trained by the Pipe stable
4/22 – Winning favourites
3/22 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
3/22 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
3/22 – Ran at Carlisle last time out
2/22 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/22 – Irish-trained winners
The last winner aged in double-figures was in 1975
Paul Nicholls has saddled 13 placed horses (three winners, Stage Star, Al Ferof & Caid Du Berlais) from his last 47 runners
The average winning SP in the last 22 years is 10/1

SUREWIN BEST BET: IL RIDOTO
SUREWIN DANGER: IN EXCELSIS DEO

2.55 – From The Horses Mouth Podcast Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV

20/22 – Aged 7 or younger
19/22 – Had between 2 and 5 previous hurdles wins
18/22 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
17/22 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
15/22 – Carried 10-11 or less in weight
16/22 – Irish bred
14/22 – Ran at either Cheltenham (7), Aintree (4) or Chepstow (3) last time out
14/22 – Officially rated 126 to 137
14/22 – Placed favourites
14/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/22 – Had run at Cheltenham before
13/22 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
10/22 – Won their last race
8/22 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
8/22 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
4/22 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/22 – Won by an Irish-trained stable
6 of the last 16 winners have had a claiming jockey riding

SUREWIN BEST BET: DOYEN QUEST
SUREWIN DANGER: ITSO FURY

3.30 – Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m5f26y ITV4

17/19 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
16/19 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
13/19 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/19 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
10/19 – Had run at Cheltenham before
8/19 – Irish-bred winners
8/19 – Returned a double-figure price
8/19 – Carried 10-13 or less
7/19 – Favourites unplaced
6/19 – Went onto finish in the top 4 in a race at the Cheltenham Festival
6/19 – Won last time out
5/19 – French bred winners
5/19 - Winning favourites
3/19 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2 of the last 11 winners went onto be placed in the Martin Pipe Conditionals race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
2 of the last 15 winners went onto be placed in the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season

SUREWIN BEST BET: HAMSIYANN
SUREWIN DANGER: WONDERFUL EAGLE

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (Sky Sports Racing/ITV)

3:15 – BetUK Churchill Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Fast Track Qualifier) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV

16/18 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
13/18– Rated between 102 and 112
13/18 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/18 – Favourites placed in the top two
12/18 – Won between 1-4 times before
10/18 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/18 – Placed last time out
7/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor (2 of the last 9)
2/18 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 5)
Godolphin have won 3 of the last 9 runnings
9 of the last 11 winners drawn in stalls 7 or lower
Note: Previous runs staged at Lingfield (from 2023)

SUREWIN BEST BET: TYRRHENIAN SEA
SUREWIN DANGER: PEACE MAN

3.48 – BetUK Golden Rose Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Fast Track Qualifier) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f ITV

16/17 – Previous winner over 6f or 7f
15/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Aged 4 or older
13/17 – Didn’t win last time out
14/17 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
13/17 – Won 5 or more times before
11/17 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
10/17 – Unplaced last time out
9/17 – Unplaced favourites
6/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
Willem Twee (3/1) won the race in 2023
Note: Previous runs staged at Lingfield (from 2023)

SUREWIN BEST BET: WILLEM TWEE
SUREWIN DANGER: ANNAF