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Free Horse Racing Tips and Stats: Sat 8th March 2025

Monday, March 3, 2025

It's the calm before the storm this coming Saturday with the Cheltenham Festival looming on the horizon. However, still plenty to get stuck into with the ITV cameras to take in four races at Sandown Park that include the competitive Imperial Cup.

We've also two LIVE ITV races on the AW to take in from Wolverhampton, including the Lincoln Handicap Trial - yes, all the racing talk might be about Cheltenham at the moment, but the start of the flat turf season is also not far away!

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at SUREWIN we've all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get GOING!

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Sandown Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

1.50 – European Breeders´ Fund Betfair "National Hunt" Novices´ Handicap Hurdle Final (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4fy ITV4

21/21 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
20/21 – Aged 6 or younger
20/21 – Carried 10-11 or more
18/21 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
17/21 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
17/21 – Rated 129 or less
16/21 – Unplaced favourites
15/21 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
15/21 – Returned 9/1 or less in the betting
14/21 – Irish bred
13/21 – Aged 6 years-old
12/21 – Had won over this trip before
8/21 – Won last time out
3/21 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 10)
2/21 – Won by the Fergal O’Brien yard (2 of the last 9)
2/21 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
2/21 – Won by the Pipe yard
1/21 – Winning favourites
1/21 – Winners that went onto run at Cheltenham (3rd Martin Pipe)
The last 11 winners were aged 5 or 6

SUREWIN BEST BET: THE KEMBLE BREWERY
SUREWIN DANGER: BELLIANO

2.25 – Betfair Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

19/21 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
19/21 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
19/21 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
18/21 – Rated 124 or higher
16/21 – Carried 10-13 or less
16/21 – Aged 6 or younger
14/21 – Had won over at least 2m1f (hurdles) before
12/21 – Carried 10-7 or less
12/20 – Winners that went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, Gaspara - Fred Winter)
12/21 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
11/21 – Finished in the top two last time out
10/21 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/21 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2), Sandown (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
7/21 – French bred
6/21 – Won last time out
6/21 – Had raced at Sandown (hurdles) before – 2 had won there before
6/21 – Winning favourites
5/21 – Won by the Pipe stable (have won it 9 times in all)
2/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 5)
2/21 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 of last 8)
2/21 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/21 – Ridden by Harry Cobden (2 of the last 5)
The average winning SP in the last 21 years is 11/1

SUREWIN BEST BET: GO DANTE
SUREWIN DANGER: SPIRTS BAY

3.00 – British Stallion Studs EBF Mares´ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

19/20 – Had won at least one NH Flat race before
19/20 – 1ST or 2ND last time out
18/20 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
14/20– Won last time out
14/20 – Had won just once before (NH Flat race)
12/20 – Aged 5 years-old
11/20 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
2/20 – Winning favourites
13 of the last 15 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old

SUREWIN BEST BET: CHARISMA CAT
SUREWIN DANGER: ROSES ALL THE WAY

3.35 – Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (Challenger Staying Chase Series Qual’) Cl3 (5yo+ 0-135) 3m37y ITV

18/20 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
18/20 – Carried 11-0 or more
18/20 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
17/20 -  Rated between 125-134
16/20 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences
15/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/20 – Aged 8 or older
13/20 – Irish bred
12/20 – Placed favourites
11/20 – Unplaced last time out
11/20 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/20 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
4/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/20 – Won last time out
3/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
The last 9 winners returned 9/1 or less
7 of the last 9 winners carried 11st or more
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 5/1

 

SUREWIN BEST BET: HOLY JOLY SMOKE
SUREWIN DANGER: EXCELLO

 

Wolverhampton Horse Racing Trends (SkySportsRacing/ITV)

2.45– BetMGM Sports Lincoln Trial Handicap Cl2 1m141y ITV4

20/22 – Aged 6 or younger
19/22 – Won over a mile (or further) before
18/22 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
18/22 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
17/22– Won at least three times before
12/22 – Placed favourites
11/22 – Came from stall 8 or higher
11/22 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
10/22 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
9/22 – Had won at Wolverhampton before
8/22 – Aged 5 years-old
8/22 – Won last time out
6/22 – Winning favourites
4/22 – Ridden by Jim Crowley (2) or David Probert (2)
2/22 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/22 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2 of the last 6 winners were trained by Andrew Balding

SUREWIN BEST BET: SYMBOL OF LIGHT
SUREWIN DANGER: FINAL VOYAGE

3.20 – BetMGM Lady Wulfruna Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 7f32y ITV4

15/18 – Placed favourites
15/18 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Had won over 7f before
12/18 – Rated 104 or higher
11/18 – Had won at least 4 times before
11/18 – Had raced within the last 3 weeks
10/18 – Raced at Lingfield last time out
9/18 – Unplaced last time out
7/18 – Had won at Wolverhampton before
7/18 – Winning favourite
6/18 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
3/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 7)
2/18 – Trained by Marco Botti
2/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of last 5)
9 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 6 or lower

SUREWIN BEST BET: JABAARA
SUREWIN DANGER: FAIR ANGELLICA

 

Hereford Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

2:05 DragonBet Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 3) (5yo+ 0-140)

7 previous runnings
7/7 – Aged between 7-9
7/7 – Carried 10-12 or more
2/7 – Winning favourite
Trainer Joe Tizzard has a 33% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Matt Sheppard has a 25% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Jockey Stan Sheppard has a 33% strike-rate riding chasers at the track

SUREWIN BEST BET: WESTERN GENERAL
SUREWIN DANGER: HYPOTENUS 

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