It’s Derby Day at Epsom Racecourse this weekend and like every Saturday we’ve got all the LIVE ITV races covered from a trends and stats angle, plus our free tips on each contest.

Supporting the big race, we’ve got four more LIVE races to take in that include the Epsom Dash, which is run over one of the quickest 5f courses in the world – blink and you’ll miss it!

Here at SUREWIN we've got the LIVE ITV races - including the Epsom Derby - covered with key trends to help find the best profiles or previous winners, plus our quickfire tips for all this Saturday's races.

EPSOM Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.25 – Hong Kong Jockey Club Lester Piggott Handicap Cl2 1m2f18y RTV

21/21 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
19/21 – Had won over 1m+ before (6 over 1m2f)
18/21 – Never run at Epsom before
14/21 – Winners from stall 5 or higher (but 5 of last 6 drawn 5 or lower)
14/21 – Placed last time out
13/21 – Carried 8-10 or more
12/21 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
9/21 – Favourites placed
8/21 – Horses placed from stall 1
6/21 – Won their previous race
3/21 – Winners from stall 1
3/21 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/21 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute
3/21 – Won by trainer Sylvester Kirk
3/21 – Trained by Andrew Balding (3 of the last 6)
2/21 – Ridden by Hayley Turner (2 of the last 3)
Stall 2 has just 3 places (1 win) to its name in the last 21 runnings

SUREWIN Best Bet: PORTSMOUTH
SUREWIN Danger: PERSICA

2.00 - Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By My Pension Expert) (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m114y ITV4

21/21 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
20/21 – Had won at Listed or Group 3 class before
18/21 – Favourites placed
17/21 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
17/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
16/21 – Drawn in stall 4,5,6, 7 or 8
16/21 – Had won over at least a mile before
15/21 – Finished in the top three last time out
16/21 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
13/21 – Had won between 4-6 times before
13/21 – Aged 4 years-old
12/21 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/21 – Winning favourites
10/21 – Had raced at Epsom before
10/21 – Drawn in either stall 5 or 6
8/21 – Won last time out
7/21 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/21 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
4/21 – Won by a Cheveley Park-owned horse
2/21 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/21 – Trained by the Channon yard
2/21 – Trained by Roger Charlton
Jockeys Tom Marquand (2) & James Doyle (3) have won 5 of the last 14 runnings
Godolphin have won 4 of the last 14 runnings
The last 11 winners were drawn 8 or lower (8 of the last 11 drawn 5 or lower)

SUREWIN Best Bet: CHIC COLOMBINE
SUREWIN Danger: ROYAL DRESS

2.35 – BETFRED Diomed STAKES (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m 114y ITV

20/20 – Had won over at least a mile before
18/20 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
18/20 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
17/20 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
17/20 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
16/20 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
15/20 – Had won at least 4 times before
15/20 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/20 – Aged 5 or older
12/20 – Had raced at Epsom before
9/20 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/20 – Won last time out
5/20 – Winning favourites
3/20 – Trained by Andrew Balding
3/20 – Ridden by William Buick
2/20 – Trained by the Crisford stable
Regal Reality won the race in 2023

SUREWIN Best Bet: REGAL REALITY
SUREWIN Danger: SEAN

3.10 - Betfred 3YO “Dash” Handicap Cl3 (3yo 0-90) 5f ITV4

One previous  runnings
Trainer Michael Dods won the race in 2023 (Tattersalls, 8/1)
Trainer Andrew Balding has a 19% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Kevin Philippart De Foy has a 60% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Hannon is just 2 from 27 (7%) with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Richard Kingscote has a 22% strike-rate riding 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey David Probert is just 1 from 25 (4%) riding 3 year-olds at the track

SUREWIN Best Bet: MASHADI
SUREWIN Danger: ENCHANTING

3.45 – Aston Martin "Dash" Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 5f ITV

Epsom Dash Betting Trends and Stats

19/21– Didn’t win last time out
19/21 – Raced within the last 6 weeks (13 within the last 4 weeks)
17/21– Unplaced favourites
16/21 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
15/21 – Won by horses aged between 5 and 8 years-old (inc)
15/21 – Came from stall 8 or higher
14/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/21 – Had raced at Epsom previously (5 had won)
5/21 – Horses from stall 1 that hit the frame
1/21 – Winning favourites
Navello (25/1) won the race in 2023

SUREWIN Best Bet: SILKIE WILIKIE
SUREWIN Danger: DREAM COMPOSER

4.30 – Betfred Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m4f10y ITV

Epsom Derby Betting Trends and Stats

21/22 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
20/22 – Raced no more than 5 times before
19/22 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
18/22 – Had won a Group race before
18/22 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/22 – Had run over at least 1m2f before
14/22 – Won last time out
13/22 – Won from a single-figure stall (10 of the last 11 came from stalls 7-12)
13/22 – Favourites that were placed
12/22 – Had raced no more than 3 times before
11/22 – Irish-trained winners
9/22 – Had won a Group One before
8/22 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won 9 in all)
7/22 – Won by the favourite
6/22 – Ran in the 2,000 Guineas that season (2 winners)
5/22 – Won the Dante Stakes (York) last time out
5/22 – Winners from stall 12 or higher
4/22 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won 5 in all)
3/22 - Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/22 – Won over 1m4f before
1/22 – Winners from stall 1 (Adayar)
0/22 – Run at the course before
The average winning SP in the last 22 runnings is 8/1
10 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 7-12 (6 of the last 11 from stalls 10 (3) or 12 (3))
11 Dante winners went onto win the Derby (Desert Crown (2022) & Golden Horn (2015) being the most-recent)
Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby
Since the stalls were introduced in 1967 only Oath (1999) and Adayar (2021) has won from stall 1

Epsom Derby Trainer Stats

Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2022, 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018, 2020 & 2023

SUREWIN Best Bet: ANCIENT WISDOM
SUREWIN Danger: DANCING GEMINI

5.15 – Long Shot Northern Dancer Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m4f ITV4

10/10 - Aged 6 or younger
9/10 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/10 – Carried 9-3 or less
7/10 – Drawn between 9-16 (inc)
2/10 – Trained by Alan King (2 of the last 3)
2/10 – Ridden by William Buick (2 of the last 3)
2/10 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy (2 of the last 9)
2/10 – Winning favourites (2 of the last 5)  

SUREWIN Best Bet: KOTARI
SUREWIN Danger: RELENTLESS VOYAGER

5:50 - JRA Tokyo Trophy Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV4

10/10 – Drawn in stalls 4 or higher
8/10 – Drawn between stalls 4 and 10
8/10 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
7/10 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
4/10 – Drawn in stalls 4 (2) or 10 (2)
3/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Ridden by Jason Hart (2 of the last 6)
2/10 – Trained by John Quinn (2 of the last 6)
2/10 – Trained by Ian Williams (2 of the last 5)
Badri won the race in 2023

SUREWIN Best Bet: MR WAGYU
SUREWIN Danger: APOLLO ONE