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Ayr Gold Cup Tips and Trends

Friday, September 17, 2021

Run over 6f, the Ayr Gold Cup is a handicap race open to horses aged 3 or older and staged at Ayr racecourse. The line-up is put together from the highest-rated horses entered, with the maximum number of runners currently standing at 27 – any horses that don’t make the race are offered the chance to run in the consolation races – the Ayr Silver and Bronze Cups. Did you know since 1980 we’ve seen just 3 winning favourites?

Here at SUREWIN we take a look back at recent winners and gives you the key trends to look out for ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Saturday 18th September.

 

Recent Ayr Gold Cup Winners

2020 - Nahaarr (7/2 fav)
2019 – Angel Alexander (28/1)
2018 – Baron Bolt (28/1) & Son Of A Rest (5/1 fav)
2017 - Donjuan Triumphant (13/2)
2016 – Brando (11/1)
2015 – Don’t Touch (6/1 fav)
2014 – Louis The Pious (10/1)
2013 – Highland Colori (20/1)
2012 – Captain Ramius (16/1)
2011 – Our Jonathan (11/1)
2010 – Redford (14/1)
2009 – Jimmy Styles (14/1)
2008 – Regal Parade (18/1)
2007 – Advanced (20/1)
2006 – Fonthill Road (16/1)
2005 – Presto Shinko (12/1)
2004 – Funfair Wane (33/1)
2003 – Quito (20/1)
2002 – Funfair Wane (16/1)

Key Ayr Gold Cup Betting Trends

20/20 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
18/20 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
17/20 – Had 3 or more wins to their name
15/20 – Had won over 6f before
15/20 – Failed to win their last race
13/20 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/20 – Rated 90-101
13/20 – Carried 9-1 or more
13/20 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/20 – Came from a double-figure stall
11/20 – Had 7 or more runs that season
11/20 – Unplaced favourites
11/20 – Winning distance 1 length or less
10/20 – Ran at either Doncaster (3), Goodwood (4) or Haydock (3) last time out
9/20 – Had raced at Ayr before
4/20 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
3/20 – Winning favourites (4 winning favs since 1980)
2/20 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/20 - Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 8)
0/20 – Filly or mare winners
11 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 8 or higher (4 of the last 16 winners came from stall 8)
Since 1980 just five winners aged 6 or older
The last horse to win back-to-back races was Heronsiea in 1930/31
The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 15/1
Note: The 2018 renewal was a dead-heat

 

SUREWIN VERDICT: Another very competitive renewal of the Ayr Gold Cup. The first thing to note is that 11 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 8 or higher. This is, therefore, a negative for those drawn low - Great Ambassador (1) and Commanche Falls (2), who are both leading fancies, Hey Jonesy (3), Count D’orsay (4), Cheiefofchiefs (5), Fivethousandtoone (6) and Lexington Dash (7). We have seen 4 of the last 16 winners come from stall 8 though, so GULLIVER (e/w) is interesting. This 7 year-old has been running well of late and was only a neck behind Commanche Falls at Goodwood in July. He was also a close fourth in a Listed race in Ireland last time out and is 2lbs lower than when down the field in this race 12 months ago. Just Frank and Popmaster were both good winners last time out and will be popular too, while you feel the top-rated in the field - Summerghand - has a lot of weight to carry (10-1), but has been running well in much better races than this - including only beaten 3 ¾ lengths in the G1 Sprint Cup last time out at Haydock. Bielsa and Mr Wagu are others to consider, while the already mentioned - Great Ambassador - was a solid Listed winner last time out at York and does look an improving sort from the Ed Walker yard. However, this 4 year-old might not have the best draw in 1 and doesn’t look great value in a race with 25 runners in. The other pick, therefore, is the Tim Easterby runner - SUNDAY SOVEREIGN (e/w). This 4 year-old ticks a lot of the main trends and was a comfortable winner at Chester last time out. The form of that race has been franked since too, with the second winning at Chester last weekend. He’s up 5lbs for that win but looked to have a bit up his sleeve at the line, while his only try over this 6f trip resulted in an easy 6l win at the Curragh when trained in Ireland.

 

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