As we head into the last day of the 2024 Aintree Grand National Meeting on Saturday 13th April 2024 we’ve five more LIVE ITV races to enjoy.

The Stayers’ Hurdle and The Maghall Novices’ Chase are always decent events, but really – it’s all about one race on the Saturday – the Randox Health Grand National.

As always here at SUREWIN we've got all the key stats for the main LIVE ITV races – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

Good Luck!

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SATURDAY, 13th April 2024 (ITV/Racing TV)

1.20pm – William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) Cl1 3m 1/2f ITV

9/10 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
9/10 – Carried 10-12 or more
9/10 – Returned 11/1 or shorter
9/10 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
8/10 – Carried 10-12 in weight
8/10 – Won 2+ times over hurdles
7/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/10 – Didn’t win last time out
7/10 – Rated between 131-138
7/10 – Placed favs (top 4)
7/10 – Had never raced at Aintree (hurdles)
5/10 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
4/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Finished in the top 4 at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
2/10 – Trained and ridden by Dan and Harry Skelton
2/10 – Trained by David Pipe (Pipe’s 5 wins overall)

SUREWIN BEST BET: JOHNNYWHO
SUREWIN DANGER: WEST BALBOA

1.55pm – The Turners Mersey Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f ITV

19/20 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
17/20 – Raced 39 days or less ago
17/20 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
16/20 – Placed in the top three last time out
15/20 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the market (11 of last 13)
12/20 – Raced in the Supreme (4), Ballymore (7) or County Hurdle (1) last time out
9/20 – Favourites to win (2 joint) (8 of the last 12 favs have won)
9/20 – Won their last race
4/20 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/20 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/20 – Trained by the Tizzard yard (2 of the last 6)
2/20 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 12 runnings)
Ballymore (Baring Bingham) Hurdle winners (Cheltenham Festival) are 4-from-4 since 1999
20 of the last 26 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
13 of the last 14 winners were placed 1^st, 2^nd or 3^rd last time out
19 of the last 25 (76%) winners were either fav or 2nd fav
11 of the last 17 (65%) winners had won at least 3 times hurdles
15 of the last 24 (63%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
16 of the last 26 (62%) winners finished 6th or better at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Willie Mullins, Tizzard, Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson have won 10 of the last 19 (56%) runnings between them
8 of the last 13 runnings went to a 5 year-old
Only 1 winning 4 year-old in the last 27 years
Only 2 winning 7 year-olds in the last 34 years
Respect horses rated 150+ (5-from-9 since 2011)
Front runners in the race have a bad recent record

2023 Winner: Irish Point (5/1)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Jockey: Davy Russell

SUREWIN BEST BET: CALDWELL POTTER
SUREWIN DANGER: BETTERDAYSAHEAD

2.30pm – William Hill Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f ITV

17/20 – Had run within the last 35 days
16/20 – Didn’t win last time out
15/20 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
14/20 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
12/20 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
12/20 – Priced 15/2 or bigger in the market
12/20 – Unplaced in their last race
4/20 – Won their last race
4/20 – Favourites that won
3/20 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard (3 of the last 13)
2/20 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
1/20 – Irish-trained winners
Only 4 of the last 24 winners were aged 10+
Only 5 winners carried more than 11st in the last 19 years
Just 1 Irish-trained winner in the last 46 runnings
9 of the last 13 (69%) winners were rated between 131 and 140
10 of the last 16 winners didn’t win earlier that season
8 of the last 11 winners had won over 3m before
Only 2 of the last 17 winners won last time out

2023 Winner: Midnight River (15/2)
Trainer: Dan Skelton
Jockey: Harry Skelton

SUREWIN BEST BET: FORWARD PLAN
SUREWIN DANGER: TWIG

3.05pm – JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y ITV

16/19 – Ran within the last 30 days
15/19 – Priced 11/2 or less in the market
15/19 - Aged between 6-8 years-old
13/19 – Won or finished 2nd at this meeting previously
13/19 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
12/19 – Won by a horse aged 6 or 7 years-old
11/19 – Placed 4th or better in that season’s Stayers' Hurdle (Cheltenham)
9/19 – Won their last race
9/19 – Favourites to win (6 odds-on)
6/19 – Raced in that season’s Cleeve Hurdle
4/19 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/19 – Irish-trained winners
2/19 – Trained by Gordon Elliott (last two)
2/19 – Trained by Alan King
2/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
16 of the last 19 (84%) winners raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
18 of the last 19 (95%) winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
15 of the last 19 (79%) had run at this meeting before
14 of the last 19 (74%) were favourite or second favourite
8 of the last 14 winners won a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
7 of the last 14 winners won the Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) before winning this and 6 from last 8 (since becoming a G1 race)
Previous winners of the race are currently 6-from-6
Horses rated 170+ are currently 6-from-8
Just 3 of the last 19 winners aged 9+(Sire Du Berlais, 11)
Just 2 winners rated below 155 in the last 19 runnings
No 5 year-old winners

2023 Winner: Sire Du Berlais (16/1)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Jockey: Mark Walsh

SUREWIN BEST BET: SIRE DU BERLAIS
SUREWIN DANGER: MONKFISH

4.00pm – Randox Health Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m 2 1/2f ITV

• • • • 31/32 – Officially rated 137 or higher
      • 30/32 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
      • 28/32 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
      • 28/32 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
      • 25/32 – Returned a double-figure price
      • 25/32 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
      • 25/32 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS
      • 25/32 – Aged 9 or older
      • 23/32 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
      • 21/32 - Aged 10 years-old or younger
      • 20/32 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
      • 20/32 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
      • 19/32 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
      • 18/32 – Placed favourites
      • 18/32 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
      • 16/32 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
      • 13/32 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
      • 12/32 – Trained in Ireland (inc 9 of the last 17 years)
      • 8/32 – Won last time out
      • 7/32 – Ran in a previous Grand National (but 13 of the last 15 were having their debuts)
      • 7/32 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
      • 3/32 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
      • 2/32 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
      • 2/32 - Trained by Lucinda Russell (2 of the last 7)
      • 1/32 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts and Stats

• Since 1978, 138 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just two winners – Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
• 5 of the last 6 winners wore a tongue tie
• 21 of the last 29 winners aged between 8-10
• 19 of the last 24 winners were bred in Ireland
• 14 of the last 18 winners finished in the top 4 last time out
• Only 4 horses that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961 (Corach Rambler did the double in 2023)
• 13 of the last 15 Grand National winners were having their first run in the race
• Just one 7 year-old or younger to win since back in 1940 (Noble Yeats, 2022)
• 14 of the last 26 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
• No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
• 3 of the last 14 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
• 10 of the last 20 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
• 5 of the last 21 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
• Only five 8 year-olds have won the last 28 renewals (but 4 in the last 8 years)
• Just two past winners or placed horse from the previous year’s race has won for 37 years (83 have attempted)
• 24 of the last 26 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
• Just two back-to-back winners since 1974 Red Rum (1974) and Tiger Roll (2019)
• Respect Gigginstown House Stud owned runners – 3 in the last 7

Aintree Grand National Betting Trends (20 Year)

20/20 – Carried 11st 9lbs or less
18/20 – Carried 11st 5lbs or less
18/20 – Officially rated 137 or higher
17/20 – Had won over at least 3m previously
17/20 – Ran less than 50 days ago
15/20 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
12/20 – Winners from the top 8 in the betting
12/20 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/20 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
9/20 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
8/20 – Experienced the National fences before
7/20 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
6/20 – Won their last race
5/20– Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
5/20 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
3/20 – Won by the Gordon Elliott yard
2/20 – Won by the McCain yard
2/20 - Won by the Lucinda Russell yard

2023 Winner: Corach Rambler (8/1)
Trainer: Lucinda Russell
Jockey: Derek Fox

SUREWIN BEST BET: MR INCREDIBLE
SUREWIN DANGER: KITTY'S LIGHT

5.00 – My Pension Expert Maghull Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m

20/20 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
20/20 – Winners from the first 3 in the market
20/20 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the market
17/20 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
17/20 – Ran within the last 35 days
15/20 – Placed in the top three in their last race
13/20 – Ran in the Arkle Chase last time out
11/20 – Won by a horse aged 5 or 6 years-old
9/20 – Won their last race
9/20 – Favourites that won
5/20 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
5/20 – Irish-trained winners
4/20 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc 4 of last 12 runnings)
3/20 – Won by the Henry de Bromhead yard (inc 3 of the last 10 runnings)
Arkle Chase winners have a good record – 6-9 in the last 23 years and 4-from-5 since 2008
Since 1989 there have been just 5 Irish-trained winners – 2013, 2015, 2016, 2019 & 2022
Since 1999 trainer Paul Nicholls has had 7 winners and 7 runners-up
21 of the last 28 (75%) winners ran in the Arkle Chase that season
9 of the last 14 winners were French bred
11 of the last 15 winners have won at least 3 times over fences
Just 1 winner in the last 24 years finished unplaced last time out
Just 1 winner in the last 26 years returned 13/2 or bigger
No 9 year-old winner since 1973

2023 Winner: Jonbon (2/11)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Aidan Coleman

SUREWIN BEST BET: FOUND A FIFTY
SUREWIN DANGER: ETALON