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4/26/2021
2021 Punchestown Gold Cup Trends
Staged at the five-day Punchestown Festival in April the Punchestown Gold Cup is a Grade One contest run over 3m1f.
The race version we see today was first run back in 1999 and since then has been won by some leading names, including Cheltenham Gold Cup winners Imperial Call, Kicking King, War Of Attrition & Don Cossack - while the 2012 Grand National winner, Neptune Collonges, took this twice before he landed the Aintree marathon.
With no race in 2020 due to the Covid situation, the last winner was Kemboy back in 2019.
Did you know? – 12 of the last 17 Punchestown Gold Cup winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old, while 13 of the last 17 winners were Irish-trained?
We take a look back at recent Punchestown Gold Cup winners, plus highlight the key stats ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Wednesday 28th April 2021
Recent Punchestown Gold Cup Winners
2020 – No race (Covid)
2019 – KEMBOY (13/8 fav)
2018 – BELLSHILL (4/1)
2017 – SIZING JOHN (9/10)
2016 – CARLINGFORD LOUGH (12/1)
2015 – DON COSSACK (5/2)
2014 – BOSTON BOB (5/2 fav)
2013 – SIR DES CHAMPS (2/1 fav)
2012 – CHINA ROCK (20/1)
2011 – FOLLOW THE PLAN (20/1)
2010 – PLANET OF SOUND (14/1)
2009 – NOTRE PERE (15/8 fav)
2008 – NEPTUNE COLLONGES (9/10 fav)
2007 – NEPTUNE COLLONGES (8/1)
2006 – WAR OF ATTRITION (4/5 fav)
2005 – KICKING KING (8/11 fav)
2004 – BEEF OF SALMON (5/4 fav)
2003 – FIRST GOLD (7/4 fav)
Punchestown Gold Cup Betting Trends
14/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/17 – Aged 8 or younger
13/17 – Irish-trained winners
12/17 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
10/17 – Had run in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
9/17 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
9/17 – Winning favourites
8/17 – Ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time out
7/17 – Won last time out
4/17 - Trained by Willie Mullins (4 of the last 7)
2/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 11/2
8 of the last 15 favourites have won
Nine of the last 12 Irish-trained favourites have won
Since 1999 only 2 Irish-trained winners hadn’t won at the course before
8 of the last 21 winners had run in that season’s John Durkan Memorial Chase
SUREWIN VERDICT: The Cheltenham Gold Cup winner - Minella Indo - doesn't run, but we've still a cracking renewal. The current champ - Kemboy - is surprisingly the only CD winner in the field and after flopping in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham again, he'll be a different proposition now back on his home turf. He was a good winner of the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown in Feb and saw off the two-time Cheltenham Gold Cup winner - Al Boum Photo - in this race last time it was run in 2019. Al Boum Photo lines up again and despite not managing to secure that third win at Cheltenham last month, it was still a top effort to be third and only beaten 5 1/2 lengths. He's a big player, but the niggle for me is that he's yet to win here at Punchestown from three runs, while he looked to have a hard race the last day which might have left it's mark. Fakir D'oudairies bounced back to winning form last time at Aintree in the Marsh Chase, but the concern with him would be the trip - stepping up from 2m4f here to 3m 1/2f. Yes, he ran on well the last day to suggest it's worth another crack, but he's now taking on some top-class stayers. Melon just doesn't win enough for me, but on his day is very useful, so the call is for a British winner in the race with CLAN DES OBEAUX getting the call for Paul Nicholls. The former King George winner returned to form last time out with an easy win in the Betfair Bowl at Aintree and even though the track here at Punchestown is an unknown, he will like the ground and he's still the joint top-rated in the field, with Al Boum Photo - a chance is taken on him backing up that recent 26 length win at Aintree, where he had the likes of Native River and Tiger Roll miles back. If staying the trip Fakir D'oudairies would be interesting, but Kemboy rates the main danger for me at a track we know suits.
4/26/2021
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4/23/2021
Sandown TV Trends and Tips (Fri 23rd April 2021)
Plenty to look forward to this Friday as the ITV cameras head to Sandown Park for their opening day of their two-day mixed flat and jumps meeting. We get going on Friday (23rd April) with four LIVE flat races on the card that include the Bet365 Mile, Classic Trial, Gordon Richard Stakes and the Esher Cup.
So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at SUREWIN with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!
SANDOWN HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)
1.50 - bet365 Esher Cup (Handicap) Cl2 1m14y ITV4
17/17 – Had won no more than twice before
16/17 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
15/17 – Never raced at Sandown before
13/17 – Had won just once before
13/17 – Had between 2-4 runs before
13/17 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
13/17 – Priced 17/2 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
10/17 – Had won over at least 1 mile before
10/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/17 – Unplaced favourites
8/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Raced at Kempton last time out
3/17 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
3/17 – Trained by the Hannon stable
2/17 – Trained by John Gosden
2/17 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 13/2
Masaru (9/1) won the race in 2019
BEST BET: RIFLEMAN
DANGER: QUINTILLUS
2.25 - bet365 Gordon Richards Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f7y ITV4
16/17 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
16/17 – Officially rated 110 or higher
15/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
15/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/17 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Had won a Group race before
14/17 – Had won at least twice (UK) before
12/17 – Placed favourites
11/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/17 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
7/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
7/17 – Irish bred
6/17 – Had run at Sandown before
6/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
5/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/17 – Trained by John Gosden
3/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Ridden by James Doyle
Crystal Ocean (Evs) won the race in 2018 and 2019
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 10/3
BEST BET: HIGHEST GROUND
DANGER: HUKUM
3.00 - bet365 Mile (Group 2) Cl1 1m14y ITV4
15/16 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Had won a Group race before
13/16 – Had won over a mile before
12/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/16 – Had won 5 or more times before
11/16 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
10/16 – Placed favourites
9/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/16 – Aged 4 years-old
8/16 – Trained by the Hannon stable
8/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/16 – Horses drawn in stall 3 that finished second
5/16 – Had run at Sandown before
4/16 – Previous Group One winners
3/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Trained by David O’Meara
2/16 – Won by Sir Michael Stoute
2/16 – Won by a previous winner of the race
3 of last 9 winners have come from stall 1
Beat The Bank Won the race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 3/1
BEST BET: PALACE PIER
DANGER: KHUZAAM
3.35 - bet365 Classic Trial (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f7y ITV4
14/16 – Won between 1-3 times before
14/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Never raced at Sandown before
11/16 – Had won over at least 1m before
11/16 – Placed in the top 2 last time out
9/16 – Irish bred winners
8/16 – Raced at Leopardstown (2), Curragh (2) or Newbury (4) last time out
8/16 – Horses drawn in stall 4 that finished in the first 3
7/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Trained by John Gosden
3/16 – Winners from stall 4
3/16 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/16 – Ridden by William Buick
2/16 – Winners from stall 3
Berlin Tango (7/1) won the race in 2020
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1
Note: The 2020 running was staged at Kempton AW (June)
BEST BET: TRAWLERMAN
DANGER: LONE EAGLE
4/21/2021
Sagaro Stakes Trends
Run at Ascot racecourse this Group 3 flat race is staged for horses aged 4 or older and run over a trip of 2m.
We take a look back at recent winners and give you the key trends ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Wednesday 28th April 2021
Recent Sagaro Stakes Winners
2020 – NAYEF ROAD (8/1)
2019 – DEE EX BEE (11/8 fav)
2018 – TORCEDOR (9/4 fav)
2017 – SWEET SELECTION (15/2)
2016 – MIZZOU (11/4)
2015 – MIZZOU (4/1)
2014 – TAC DE BOISTRON (7/2)
2013 – ESTIMATE (2/1 fav)
2012 – COLOUR VISION (9/2)
2011 – ASKAR TAU (4/1)
2010 – ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE (16/1)
2009 – PATKAI (2/5 fav)
2008 – SHIPMASTER (4/1)
2007 – TUNGSTEN STRIKE (9/2)
2006 – COVER UP (4/1)
2005 – ALCAZAR (5/1)
2004 – RISK SEEKER (11/2)
2003 – ALCAZAR (7/2)
Sagaro Betting Trends and Stats
15/18 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Had won at least 3 times before
13/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/18 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
12/18 – Had won a Group race before
12/18 – Rated 108 or higher
11/18 – Had won over at least 2m (flat) before
11/18 – Placed favourites
11/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/18 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
7/18 – Winning distance – ½ or less
4/18 – Won last time out
4/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Raced at Nottingham last time out
3/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/18 – Went onto win the Ascot Gold Cup (2 of last 8)
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 9/2
Note: The 2012 renewal was staged at Kempton, 2006 & 2005 at Lingfield, while the 2020 was run at Newcastle
SUREWIN VERDICT: The Mark Johnston-trained Nayef Road landed this race last season and the yard have actually won the last two renewals as well, with Dee Ex Bee winning in 2019. The consistent Nayef Road is a horse that rarely runs a bad race and has finished in the first three in 13 of his 19 career races. He's also a horse that's gone well fresh in recent years - winning on his first run back for the last two seasons, so overall it's hard to fault his chance - he should be in the mix and if you are looking for a solid horse that will give you a run for your money, then he's your man! However, this year he won't have an easy task in this race with the 125-rated STRADAVARIUS in the race - a horse that beat Nayef Road by 10 lengths in the Ascot Gold Cup last June. Yes, since then the normally reliable Stradavarius was beaten in the Arc and then in the Long Distance Cup at Ascot - both in October. However, he had excuses those days with the Arc coming over 1m4 and his most-recent defeat coming in softer than ideal ground. He was still beaten a long way last time, but it was clearly a run too bad to be true and only came 13 days after his trip to France. The 'good news' is that he's still only 7 years-old, so certainly has another season or two at this level if back to his best. Plus, with just over 6 months off since to freshen up there's every chance he'll be raring to go again as he gets set for another season of tackling the best 'Cup Races'. He's currently rated 10lbs higher than anything else in the field and back on a quicker surface then he's taken to get back to winning ways for trainer John Gosden and jockey Frankie Dettori. Of the rest, the consistent and improving Ocean Wind and the globe-trotting Prince Of Arran can do best of the rest, but all eyes will be on 'Strady' as he looks to get his career back on track.