There are good cards with decent races at Aintree, Sandown and Chepstow, Wetherby doesn’t look too bad either, but few races have been priced by the bookmakers and less than a handful of bookmakers have prices for all bar Sandown’s feature The Tingle Creek Chase.
The Becher Handicap Chase (3m2f), over the Grand National fences at Aintree, is the only race with a real in depth market, so I will give a run through that 2:40 contest on Saturday. A total of 19 runners have stood their ground at the 5 day stage (max field size is actually 30), the ground is currently soft (good to soft in places) on the National track, but with more showers forecast, it might get slower on the day.
The following runners have other entries. Galia Des Liteaux and Excello are both still in the London National at Sandown (3:35), so is Tanganyika, the Venetia Williams trained 7yo has an entry in the Welsh National later this month as well. Speaking of which, Westerninthpark, Monbeg Genius, Iron Bridge and Mr Vango are all in the Welsh National, last year’s winner Val Dancer probably has that as his main target, as a prep run for that, will he go to Aintree on Saturday or will he run in Sunday’s Scottish Borders National at Kelso.
If any of them have real aspirations of taking the Welsh National on the 27th, would any want a slog just 3 weeks prior just 3 weeks prior and if any of them were to win, they would incur a penalty as well. Mahons Glory has another entry in the Peterborough Chase Huntingdon on Sunday
Galia Des Liteaux would appeal if she lined up at Aintree, as she’s jumped round the National fences (8th in the Grand National), but at 8/1 with a little uncertainty (12/1 with 2 bookmakers) she might be the same price when the final declarations are made. The ground will be more in her favour at Aintree (supposed to want soft ground), it’s currently good at Sandown, but Harry Skelton is already jocked up and it’s arguably an easier race for her to win.
Conditions will suit Westerninthepark (14-16/1), however he has no experience of Aintree, but he was ahead of Galia Des Liteaux when they were 4th and 5th on their debuts at Carlisle 34 days ago. Iron Bridge (14-16/1) was ahead of both in 2nd, he may have no experience of the fences, but he’s nearly double the price of Galia Des Liteaux!
Mr Vango is current 5/1 favourite, but he’s never run at Aintree, he’s making his season debut, is off a career high mark and is lumbered with the welter burden of 12st. The biggest carrying weight in the last 10 years is 11st6lb and only 2 horses have carried over 11st as well. Stablemates Gaboriot and White Rhino (8/1 each) both have experience of these fences and the former has twice been placed here over 2m5f (stays 4m). This race is their target, should they avoid mishap, both have reasonable claims, the same can be said for Bill Baxter (10/1) and King Turgeon (12/1), they’ve both won over the National fences, at double figure odds, both are reasonably priced. Bill Baxter won’t mind the soft ground, King Turgeon copes with it but slightly better might suit ideally for him.
The fly is Irish raider Bioluminescence (8/1 generally, 12/1 with 2 books), this 7yo mare could be well treated, but she is relatively inexperienced over fences (ran 5, won 1) and these fences might just come a little too soon in her career, perhaps (market watch advised). Nicky Henderson’s pair Excello (14/1) and Mister Coffey (16/1) both have experience of the fences, but the former may go to Sandown for better ground, whilst the latter doesn’t know how to win. Mister Coffey has been trying to win over fences since November 2021, but is still a frustrating maiden at this game, he’s had 17 starts as chaser, he’s won 0 but has often finished in the frame (12 times). In his defence, he’s been competing in decent races and rarely runs a bad race, he stays a little further (3m6f) and could be worth a little e/w investment at a decent enough price. But, whilst he copes well enough with soft ground, he wouldn’t want it to get too deep.
Verdict, I don’t see a bet at the moment, with a few too many uncertainties and not a great deal of value, personally I would rather wait until the declaration stage.
This ante post preview was written by Philip ‘Snowy’ Griffiths, our resident national hunt expert. The aim of these ante post columns is to educate readers on the most and least likely runners for the races in focus and to highlight any potential early value. This is not a tipping column and doesn’t necessarily reflect where the author’s official wagers are going.
