There are a trio of valuable races at Ascot (each £125,000), but the feature is the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle (3m) at 2:25.
The JP McManus owned pair Honesty Policy (Gordon Elliott) and Impose ToI (Henderson) are heading the market, but the first named has another entry in Ireland and I would expect the Henderson runner to go off favourite on Saturday. He beat Strong Leader last time at Newbury, despite a weight difference (6lb), he is likely to improve further and I think he will beat that rival again.
Crambo bids for a Hat-trick of wins in this contest, he has to be considered, but he was last of 8 on his return here 4 weeks ago (albeit over shorter, 2m3.5f). There isn’t much room outside those principles for an e/w play in the market, but if you’re looking for that type of investment, Potters Charm and Doddiethegreat are a couple that could appeal if the price is right (double figures ideally).
The Venetia William trained 7yo Victtorino has won the last 2 renewals of the Class 1 Howden Silver Cup H’cap Chase (3m), he’s currently around 5/1 to make it a hat-trick of wins at 3:00 on Saturday. Despite an ordinary effort when 16th at Newbury in the Corak Gold Cup on debut, given his record at Ascot (won 4 from 5), he should make another bold bid on Saturday.
Blow Your Wad has a fair chance but he’s already been well found in the market (4/1 from 6-7/1), those comments apply to Johnnywho as well (10/1 into general 11/2). Pic Roc has claims but for what he’s actually achieved over fences (1 win from 9, beat 3 rivals) he seems very short indeed.
Dual C&D winner Henry’s Friend has claims but he only ran 8 days back (8th of 9 Chelt), an interesting runner is Deep Cave but he might go in the Graduation chase at 1:50 instead. Leave Of Absence (also in Graduation chase) and Hyland (Welsh national entry) have e/w claims providing the ground remains relatively dry, both are around 10-12/1, better value may be last year’s 3rd Threeunderthrufive (14-16/1). He is 8lb better off with his conqueror Victtorino for that 9 lengths defeat and 1lb better for a nose defect by him in February over this C&D as well, the previous season he won that February contest with Victtorino behind him (5 lengths 4th), so he likes it here at Ascot and unlike last year when 3rd on his debut, he’s already had an outing to put him straight.
The Class 1 Ascot Rotary Club Festive H’cap Hurdle (2m) at 3:35 is a very decent contest, but with bookmakers giving nothing away, I don’t think it’s worth investing at this stage. Mondo Man (3/1) and Alexei (4/1 best) each hold strong claims, I think Wilful (5/1) has a sound e/w chance, but he doesn’t look good value at that price. His stablemate Wreckless Eric can’t be discounted, but he hasn’t run for 260 days, though he does have a good record when he’s fresh. The market isn’t ideal for an early play, but if I was forced I would possibly go with Helnwein e/w, Alexei beat him a comfortable 6 lengths in the Greatwood hurdle at Cheltenham last time, but the winner was having his 3rd outing, Helnwein was making his debut (after 190 days off) and he will be 9lb better off with Alexei on Saturday.
This ante post preview was written by Philip ‘Snowy’ Griffiths, our resident national hunt expert. The aim of these ante post columns is to educate readers on the most and least likely runners for the races in focus and to highlight any potential early value. This is not a tipping column and doesn’t necessarily reflect where the author’s official wagers are going.
