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Sat TV Trends and Tips: 18th May 2024

Thursday, May 16, 2024

After a week at York, the ITV cameras head to Newbury this Saturday to cover four races including the Lockinge Stakes, while they are also showing three contests from Newmarket – As always, here at SUREWIN we've got all the big race trends on Saturday 20th May.

 

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.50 – Sky Sports Racing Aston Park Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

19/20 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
17/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
17/20 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
15/20 – Drawn 4 or lower
15/20 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
14/20 – Had run at Newbury before
13/20 – Placed favourites
13/20 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
11/20 – Irish bred
11/20 – Had won between 1-3 times before
10/20 – Aged 4 years-old
7/20 – Winning favourites
5/20 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (2 of the last 5)
4/20 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/20 – Won last time out
3/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/20 – Trained by William Haggas (2 of the last 3)
3 of the last 15 winners were Godolphin-owned

Best Bet: DESERT HERO
Danger: SALT BAY

2.25 – Highclere Castle Gin Carnarvon Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f8y ITV

17/19 – Had won over 6f before
16/19 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
15/19 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
15/19 – Had between 1-3 previous wins
14/19 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
13/19 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
13/19 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
7/19 – Winning favourites
7/19 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
6/19 – Won last time out
3/19 – Drawn in stall 3
3/19 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/19 – Trained by William Haggas (2 of the last 9)
8 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 2-5 (inc)

Best Bet: RELIEF RALLY
Danger: ELITE STATUS

3.00 – Trade Nation London Gold Cup (Open Handicap) Cl2 1m2f6y ITV

19/20 – Had won between 1-2 times before
17/20 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
17/20 – Carried 8-10 or more
16/20 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
15/20 – Rated 90 or lower
14/20 – Winners from stall 8 or lower
14/20 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
11/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/20 – Won last time out
9/20 – Had won over 1m2f before
7/20 – Irish bred
6/20 – Raced at Newbury before (2 won here)
6/20 – Winning favourites
4/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (4 of the last 9)
4/20 – Trained by Roger Charlton
3/20 – Trained by Mark Johnston
3/20 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute

Best Bet: CHANTILLY
Danger: KING'S GAMBIT

3.35 - Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV

20/20 – Won over a mile before
17/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
16/20 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
16/20 – Had won a Group One race before
15/20 – Drawn between stalls 3-7 (inc)
15/20 – Aged 4 years-old
15/20 – Had won at least 4 times before
14/20 – Winning favourites
11/20 – Having their first run of the season
10/20 – Unplaced last time out
6/20 – Godolphin owned
4/20 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard (Has won the race 5 times in all)
4/20 – Won by a mare
4/20 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/20 – Won by a Cheveley Park stud-owned horse (won it 5 times in all)
3/20 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute (has won the race 8 times in all)
1/20 – Winners from stall 1 or 2

Best Bet: BIG ROCK
Danger: CHARYN 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

2.05 – Jenningsbet Handicap (Class 3) (3yo 0-90) 7f ITV

Just one previous run
Trainer Kevin Ryan has a 15% strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Hannon is just 10 from 121 with his 3 year-olds at the track

Best Bet: SO LOGICAL
Danger: VENTURE CAPITAL

2.40 – trustatrader.com Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 7f ITV

7/7 - Won over at least 7f before
7/7 - Won 2+ times before
7/7 - Carried 8-12 or more in weight
6/7 - Aged 4 or 6 years old
6/7 - Placed favourites
6/7 - Drawn between stalls 1-7 (inc)
5/7 - Rated between 85-91
5/7 - Didn’t win last time out
3/7 - Had run at Newmarket (Rowley) before
2/7 – Trained by William Haggas (2 of the last 3)
2/7 - Ridden by William Buick
2/7 - Winning favourites

Best Bet: QUINAULT
Danger: SUMMERGHAND

3.15 – Jenningsbet Britain’s Leading Independent Bookmakers Handicap (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-88) ITV

10/10 – Won over 1m (or further) before
9/10 – Carried 8-10 or more
9/10 – Unplaced last time out
9/10 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 – Won between 1-3 times before
8/10 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/10 – Drawn 7 or lower
7/10 – Rated between 80-89
6/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
6/10 – Had run at Newmarket before (Rowley)
5/10 – Unplaced last time out
3/10 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
2/10 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
1/10 – Favourites
Repertoire (11/2) won the race in 2023

Best Bet: REPERTOIRE
Danger: HOPEFUL

 

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